Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Starwood Property Trust (STWD)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.95+3.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.90 → 1.85 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STWD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend at $0.48 per share | It keeps paying $0.48 dividend per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.48 next year | Dividend per share: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.48 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
STWD is a real estate finance company with a moderately risky, income-focused profile, rather than a clear growth or turnaround story. The long-term thesis is currently intact, and the latest signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though management execution is volatile and earnings quality is neutral.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says STWD is cheap versus peers, while another shows a sizeable peer premium and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear expectations mismatch.
Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, and management says it is on track to resolve nearly $900 million of underperforming assets by year end. The dividend has remained at $0.48 per share, while buyback plans are being funded alongside debt repayment; however, execution is mixed overall, and the company recently missed earnings. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a stated miss probability of 44% make the next report a key watch point.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while progress resolving underperforming assets would support the multi-year thesis. The outlook also depends on interest rates and sector results: the evidence says rate cuts could weigh on financial stocks, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from NLY, BXMT, and EFC could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, STWD’s thesis rests on strong recent performance continuing and management improving asset quality, despite volatile execution and expensive overall valuation. The recent earnings miss makes near-term guidance especially important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Starwood Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.13 billion. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $2.13 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: $513.668M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.13 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026513,668,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $1.1 billion senior notes offering to fund buybacks | The company funds buybacks with $1.1 billion in senior notes. | Under Pressure | Buyback funding falls short of $1.1 billion by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.91 → $1.85 · observed estimates
$2.31B → $2.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.91 | $2,310,300,000 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.91 | $2,310,300,000 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.91 | $2,310,300,000 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.91 | $2,310,300,000 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.91 | $2,310,300,000 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 9 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.91 | $2,310,300,000 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.91 | $2,310,300,000 | 8 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.91 | $2,318,225,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.89 | $2,316,725,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.90 | $2,346,833,333 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.88 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.87 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.87 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.87 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.87 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.87 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.87 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.87 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.87 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.89 | $2,373,500,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.85 | $2,355,066,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.85 | $2,355,066,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.85 | $2,355,066,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.85 | $2,355,066,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.85 | $2,355,066,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.85 | $2,355,066,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.85 | $2,355,066,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.85 | $2,355,066,667 | 5 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.