Starwood Property Trust (STWD)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.08+1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STWD
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 STWD trades at 11× p/e, in line with its 9.7× p/e peer median — but our blended $19 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: this sector is better valued on book value or cash flow than the earnings/sales multiple shown here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcff | 12M | $109.96 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $38.56 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $25.32 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $9.07 | 8.1 | 1.12 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $9.32 |
| 9.7 |
| 0.96 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $9.67 | 1.8 | 5.48 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $11.25 | 7.4 | 1.53 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $19.07 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $15.53 | 10.1 | 1.53 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $15.00 | 9.7 | 1.54 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FFO | 3Y | $5.36 | 9.7 | 0.55 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $13.48 | 1.8 | 7.63 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $21.25 | 7.4 | 2.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $29.32 | 10.1 | 2.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FFO | 5Y | $3.71 | 9.7 | 0.38 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $16.73 | 1.8 | 9.47 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $26.37 | 7.4 | 3.59 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $36.39 | 10.1 | 3.59 | Analyst | high |