Starwood Property Trust (STWD)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.95+3.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STWD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
STWD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The company has kept the dividend at $0.48 for seven quarters. A cut would break that record.
Worry ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of less than $0.48 per share.
Less concerning ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share or more.
Why it matters: Distributable earnings were $0.40 per share in Q2. A lower result may add pressure to the $0.48 dividend.
Worry ifQ3 distributable earnings are less than $0.40 per diluted share.
Less concerning ifQ3 distributable earnings are at least $0.40 per diluted share.
Why it matters: The notes carry a 5.875% rate and may replace debt due in 2027. The final use of funds shows how the company handles debt.
Watch forThe company confirms the notes closed. It reports redeeming the $500 million notes due 2027 or using the funds to repay debt.
Also watch forThe note sale fails to close, or the company reports no repayment or redemption tied to its proceeds.
Why it matters: The company recorded a $30.2 million loan credit loss provision in Q2. A larger charge may signal more trouble in its loan book.
Worry ifQ3 loan credit loss provision is above $30.2 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 loan credit loss provision is below $30.2 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $198 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,482 loss on $10,000 · 34.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.