Starwood Property Trust (STWD)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.08+1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STWD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STWD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend at $0.48 is important. It helps build investor confidence and stability.
Worry ifManagement says the dividend will stay at $0.48. This will be shared in future updates.
Less concerning ifManagement announces a cut to the dividend per share below $0.48.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth continues and how the company is managing costs.
Watch forEarnings per share are better than expected. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings do not meet expectations. This suggests possible problems with revenue or costs.
Why it matters: The earnings miss could indicate deeper issues. A strong recovery could restore confidence.
Watch forThe next earnings report shows results that are better than expected. It recovers from the last miss.
Also watch forThe next earnings report shows results that miss expectations again. This confirms ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Growing revenue faster than most shows good business performance. It also shows a strong market position.
Supportive ifRevenue growth stays above the median for the sector, indicating strong performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median. This suggests weaker performance in a tough market.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $176 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,891 loss on $10,000 · 18.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this would help the balance sheet. It would also fund share buybacks.
Supportive ifThe company finishes the $500 million offering. They use the money for buybacks or paying debt.
Worry ifThe offering does not close or the money is not used as planned. This shows cash issues.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of financial health. Falling below this level could signal trouble.
Worry ifReported revenue growth drops below 13% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above 13% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends will show how well Starwood's business is doing. They show its ability to make money.
Watch forRevenue growth continues above 15% year over year.
Also watch forRevenue growth drops below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Fixing these assets could free up cash and improve asset quality.
Supportive ifManagement plans to fix at least $450 million of weak assets by year-end.
Worry ifLess than $450 million of weak assets fixed by year-end.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow and support for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says the dividend will stay at $0.48 for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.48.
Why it matters: Doing the buyback program shows confidence in the company and can help stock price.
Supportive ifManagement says they completed at least $100 million in share buybacks.
Worry ifNo share buybacks announced or executed in the next quarter.