Constellation Brands (STZ)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$145.49+5.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
STZ — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-18
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 18, 2026 (the “ Effective Date” ), Constellation Brands, Inc. (the “ Company” ), Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company, as administrative agent (the “ Administrative Agent” ), and certain other lenders (the “ Credit Agreement Lenders” ), entered into a Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement” and loans made thereunder the “ Term Loans” ). The Credit Agreement provides for a delayed draw term loan available in up to two draw…
Why it matters: The segment's margin rose to 3.8% in Q2, from a loss a year earlier. The full-year range tests whether that improvement can continue.
Supportive ifFY2027 Wine and Spirits operating margin reaches 5% or more.
Worry ifFY2027 Wine and Spirits operating margin ends below 5%.
Why it matters: More marketing spend cut beer's margin to 39.0% from a year earlier. The full-year range tests whether sales growth can cover that cost.
Worry ifA reported FY2027 beer operating margin below 37% would fall short of the stated 37%–38% range.
Less concerning ifFY2027 beer operating margin lands within or above the 37%–38% range.
Why it matters: Management kept its cash flow target and said cash supports investment and shareholder payments. The year-end result tests that plan.
Supportive ifFY2027 free cash flow is at least $1.6 billion, within the stated $1.6–$1.7 billion target.
Worry ifFY2027 free cash flow is below $1.6 billion.
Why it matters: Beer shipments grew, but depletions fell in both reported quarters. Growth in depletions would show stronger consumer demand.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, beer depletions rise year over year and dollar share gains continue in U.S. tracked channels.
Worry ifBeer depletions fall year over year again, or the business loses dollar share in U.S. tracked channels.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $277 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,234 loss on $10,000 · 32.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.