Constellation Brands (STZ)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$128.18-0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · STZ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
STZ — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-30
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 30, 2026, Constellation issued the release, a copy of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In addition, on June 30, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $1.03 per issued and outstanding share of the Company’s Class A Common Stock and $0.93 per issued and outstanding share of the Company’s Class 1 Convertible Common Stock, in each case payable on August 13, 20…
Why it matters: Brewery expansions show a focus on growth. They help meet future demand.
Supportive ifThe Veracruz brewery expansion has big news.
Worry ifThere are delays in the brewery expansion timeline.
Why it matters: Hitting this goal would show strong cash flow and good use of funds.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $1.6 billion for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $1.5 billion for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: How management spends money affects growth and debt. This is important for stability.
Supportive ifManagement shares a new plan for investment or reducing debt.
Worry ifManagement keeps the same strategy or faces no problems.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal would show good operations and strong cash flow.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow reported at or above $2.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow was below $2.4 billion for fiscal 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $273 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,310 loss on $10,000 · 23.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This will show if the company is balancing growth and returns to shareholders well.
Watch forOperating cash flow meets or exceeds $2.4 billion.
Also watch forOperating cash flow falls below $2.4 billion.
Why it matters: A drop of over 50% in Wine and Spirits sales shows ongoing problems after divestiture.
Worry ifQ2 Wine and Spirits net sales decline stays above 50% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 Wine and Spirits net sales decline falls below 50% year over year.
Why it matters: News on strategies can help us understand future growth and spending.
Supportive ifDate and agenda for the investor day have been announced.
Worry ifNo news or cancellation of the investor day.
Why it matters: Missing this EPS could show ongoing profit challenges.
Worry ifReported EPS for Q2 2026 is less than $9.86.
Less concerning ifReported EPS for Q2 2026 is above $10.16.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets its adjusted EPS guidance of $11.30 - $11.60.
Watch forAdjusted EPS above $11.60 shows strong performance.
Also watch forEPS below $11.30 shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments show financial strength. They also show care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly cash dividend of at least $1.03 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the quarterly cash dividend.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show lower demand. This could hurt overall earnings.
Worry ifBeer Business net sales decline worse than -4% year over year.
Less concerning ifBeer Business net sales decline less than -2% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance means financial results will be better than expected.
Supportive ifManagement raises fiscal 2027 EPS guidance to more than $12.20.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers fiscal 2027 EPS guidance to under $11.50.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show confidence in financial health. It also shows a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $400 million in FY 2027.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $300 million in FY 2027.
Why it matters: Information on plans can change how investors feel and affect stock prices.
Watch forThey will announce the date and agenda for the Investor Day.
Also watch forNo announcement regarding the Investor Day by the end of Fall 2026.
Why it matters: Morgan Flatley's experience may change marketing plans and how the brand is seen.
Supportive ifGood changes in marketing plans or brand success after her appointment.
Worry ifNo clear changes in marketing plans or brand success.
Why it matters: Growth in the Beer Business matters for Constellation's success.
Supportive ifQ2 Beer Business net sales growth above 1% year over year.
Worry ifBeer Business net sales decline or growth below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in Wine and Spirits is important after recent drops from divestitures.
Supportive ifQ2 organic net sales growth in Wine and Spirits above 1%.
Worry ifOrganic net sales in Wine and Spirits decline or grow below 1%.