Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SUNOCO LP (SUN)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.00+0.45%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.10 → 9.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SUN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital spending near $199 million in 2026 | It plans to spend about $199 million on capital projects in 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $250 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an energy-sector business with a current results-driven thesis and a supportive sector backdrop. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and recent earnings surprises have been erratic.
The evidence characterizes current pricing as justified, with low concern that weak execution and a turbulent sector are being overlooked. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot provides no peer comparison or detail on what specific operating assumptions the market already expects.
Near term, the next report carries execution risk: SUN missed its most recent quarter, despite strong recent financial performance overall. For 2026, reported EBITDA growth and higher guidance support management’s stated plan, while distribution growth is on track; capital spending progress is mixed.
A key swing factor is whether SUN sustains its raised 2026 guidance, since a reversal could damage management credibility. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from MPC, VLO, and PSX would support the tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued delivery against higher guidance and a supportive energy sector, balanced against fragile earnings quality and a recent miss. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in SUNOCO LP's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% annual dividend growth. |
| Intact |
| Dividend growth falls below 5% in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful integration of Parkland acquisition | A primary condition in SUNOCO LP's published investment case. The stated target is Integration progress score >= 70%. | Improving | Integration progress score falls below 60% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Financial and Operational Highlights Attributable to Sunoco LP Net income for the third quarter of 2026 was $499 million compared to $137 million in the third quarter of 2025.” “Financial and Operational Highlights Attributable to Sunoco LP Net income for the third quarter of 2026 was $499 million compared to $137 million in the third quarter of 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Total revenue growth at or above 7% annually | A primary condition in SUNOCO LP's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 164.55% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026164.545455 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Financial and Operational Highlights Attributable to Sunoco LP Net income for the third quarter of 2026 was $499 million compared to $137 million in the third quarter of 2025.” “Financial and Operational Highlights Attributable to Sunoco LP Net income for the third quarter of 2026 was $499 million compared to $137 million in the third quarter of 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.89 → $9.10 · observed estimates
$45.13B → $47.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.89 | $45,130,666,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.84 | $45,702,666,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.84 | $45,702,666,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.73 | $45,847,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.73 | $45,847,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.65 | $45,847,000,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.65 | $45,847,000,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.65 | $45,847,000,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.65 | $45,847,000,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.73 | $45,847,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.65 | $45,847,000,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.73 | $45,847,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.15 | $47,446,666,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.65 | $45,847,000,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.03 | $47,833,333,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.03 | $47,833,333,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.90 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.90 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.03 | $47,833,333,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.90 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.90 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.90 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.90 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.90 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.90 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.03 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.10 | $47,833,333,333 | 4 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.