SUNOCO LP (SUN)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.60+2.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SUN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SUN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished under Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except…
Why it matters: Consistent growth in distributions shows financial strength and commitment to investors. It builds investor trust.
Supportive ifAnnual distribution growth is 5% or higher.
Worry ifAnnual distribution growth is below 4%.
Why it matters: The recent earnings miss could indicate deeper issues. Monitoring future earnings is crucial.
Worry ifFuture earnings reports show net income below $283 million.
Less concerning ifFuture earnings reports show net income above $283 million.
Why it matters: A slowdown in distribution growth could signal financial strain. It would impact investor confidence.
Worry ifDistribution growth rate reported below 5% for Q3.
Less concerning ifDistribution growth rate reported at or above 5% for Q3.
Why it matters: SUN has raised its distribution for seven quarters in a row. This supports its strategy.
Supportive ifQuarterly distribution increases by at least 1.25% from the last quarter.
Worry ifNo increase in quarterly distribution from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending on track is key for growth and efficiency. It shows management's control.
Supportive ifTotal capital spending for 2026 is $600 million or more.
Worry ifTotal capital spending for 2026 is below $500 million.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted EBITDA is key to meeting management's target for the year. It shows financial health and operational success.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 adjusted EBITDA reported at $800 million or more.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA was below $700 million.
Why it matters: Higher spending could indicate aggressive growth plans or mismanagement of resources. It will show if they stick to their budget.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $600 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is under $600 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Management plans to spend about $600 million in 2026. This will affect growth.
Watch forCapital expenditures will be at or above $300 million in the next two quarters.
Also watch forCapital spending will drop below $300 million in the next two quarters.
Why it matters: Successful integration can boost revenue and profits. Updates show progress on goals.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news on synergies or revenue growth from the Parkland deal.
Worry ifThere are no updates or bad news about integration progress.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong performance and market demand. It is important for long-term success.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at $11 billion or more.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $10 billion.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company continues to grow or if there are setbacks. It impacts investor sentiment.
Watch forQ3 earnings show net income growth year over year.
Also watch forQ3 earnings show a decline in net income year over year.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $233 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,396 loss on $10,000 · 14.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.