SUNOCO LP (SUN)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.00+0.45%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SUN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 17.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
SUN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished under Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except…
Why it matters: SUN raised its 2026 EBITDA goal by $400 million. Q3 results will show whether the higher goal remains in reach.
Watch forOn November 4, SUN reports Q3 adjusted EBITDA and keeps its 2026 goal at $3.5–$3.7 billion.
Also watch forOn November 4, SUN cuts its 2026 adjusted EBITDA goal below $3.5 billion.
Why it matters: SUN has raised its distribution for seven straight quarters. Another increase would support its goal of at least 5% yearly growth.
Supportive ifSUN declares a next quarterly distribution above $1.0023 per unit, its Q2 2026 rate.
Worry ifSUN sets its next quarterly distribution at $1.0023 per unit or less.
Why it matters: SUN plans to move its unit listing from the NYSE to the Texas Stock Exchange. A completed move confirms the planned change; a delay leaves the listing change unresolved.
Watch forSUN confirms NYSE trading ends and common units begin trading on the Texas Stock Exchange.
Also watch forSUN reports that the listing move is delayed or canceled, or that NYSE trading continues past the stated end date.
Why it matters: The yearly capital spending plan is about $600 million. Spending above that level could weaken cash available for other uses.
Worry ifSUN reports 2026 capital spending above $600 million, based on its Q1, Q2, and Q3 reports.
Less concerning ifSUN reports 2026 capital spending at or below $600 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $271 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,411 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector data says revenue is shrinking, though recent signs hint that trend may change. Positive growth would support a stronger sector backdrop for SUN.
Supportive ifThe sector data shows three-year revenue growth above 0%.
Worry ifThe sector data keeps three-year revenue growth at or below 0%.