Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.10-9.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.61 → 0.60 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SVV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA between $260M and $275M in fiscal 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA target is $267.5M. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $260M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SVV is a growth and execution story with elevated risk, rather than a proven durable compounder, because the evidence still classifies earnings quality as loss-making. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding in the top half of its industry, though the evidence base is only medium confidence.
Valuation is tagged as stretched and expensive versus peers, with a notable premium and a valuation rise of 25 points in the recent period. The expectations gap is 0.23, and the valuation change is attributed to re-rating, meaning the market’s view of the business has improved; the evidence does not specify exactly which operating expectations are embedded.
Near term, management is on track with fiscal 2026 revenue guidance and has slightly raised adjusted EBITDA guidance after three consecutive quarters of year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth. Capital expenditure guidance is unchanged but remains a watch item, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; the estimated miss risk is low, though smaller size and a deep recent miss raise the risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on maintaining fiscal 2026 revenue guidance and delivering the adjusted EBITDA target while controlling capital spending. Sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength from AMZN, BABA, and PDD could support the Consumer Discretionary backdrop, while misses or weaker guidance could remove that support.
For the 1 to 3 year view, SVV shows operating progress and an intact thesis, but loss-making earnings quality, elevated risk, and stretched valuation make continued execution central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans $135M in capital spending. |
| Intact |
| Capital spending falls outside $125M to $145M range in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $29.725M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $125M and <= $145M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202629,725,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS target of $0.45 per share in fiscal 2026 | Earnings per share should reach $0.45 next year. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.41 or above $0.48 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.41 and <= $0.48. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue between $1.76B and $1.79B in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Savers Value Village, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.76B and <= $1.79B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.76B or above $1.79B in FY26 | Revenue: $448.219M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.76B and <= $1.79B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026448,219,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.59 → $0.60 · observed estimates
$1.92B → $1.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.59 | $1,921,157,632 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.59 | $1,921,159,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,378 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.61 | $1,928,009,488 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.61 | $1,924,408,625 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.61 | $1,924,409,125 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,580 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,580 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,580 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,580 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,580 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,580 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,480 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,480 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,480 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,480 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,480 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,580 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.60 | $1,924,454,580 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.