Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.45+1.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Savers Value Village aims for $1.77B revenue in fiscal 2026. Adjusted EBITDA target is $267.5M. The company plans $135M in capital spending. Earnings per share should reach $0.45 next year.
The company missed earnings several times in 2025 and early 2026. Operating income was only $12.5M in Q1 versus a $260M annual target. The business is still loss making and faces retail sector headwinds.
The stock trades about 21% above our $7.93 fair value. Analysts expect 10% revenue growth. We see risk in meeting profit and growth targets.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $260M in FY26
Breaks if: Capital spending falls outside $125M to $145M range in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.41 or above $0.48 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. SVV is currently navigating a challenging environment with elevated risks and a neutral management outlook, but it has shown some positive recent performance.
The market appears to be pricing in a justified valuation that is higher than its peers, with a premium of 2.02. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors may have moderate expectations for future performance.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026, which suggests stability in fundamentals. However, the company remains loss-making, and there is a 25% probability of missing expectations, which adds some near-term risk.
The outlook for SVV hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain its guidance, the performance of key sector players like AMZN and BABA, and the potential impact of inflation on consumer discretionary spending. Any cuts to guidance or unfavorable economic conditions could negatively affect the stock.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. However, concerns about future guidance threaten the outlook. The narrative suggests operational efficiencies may improve margins and revenue growth over time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.76B or above $1.79B in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SVV's performance will depend on its execution against targets and external market conditions. Not investment advice.