Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.45+1.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SVV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers
SVV — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 2, 2026, Evergreen AcqCo GP LLC, S-Evergreen Holding Corp., Evergreen AcqCo 1 LP (the “US Borrower”), Value Village Canada Inc. (the “Canadian Borrower” and, together with the US Borrower, the “Borrowers”), each a subsidiary of Savers Value Village, Inc., and certain of their subsidiaries entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Borrowers’ Credit Agreement, dated as of September 18, 2025 (the “Existing Credit Agreement” and, as ame…
Why it matters: If adjusted EBITDA is below the target, it shows trouble with making money. It also shows issues with managing costs.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $260 million for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $260 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue guidance shows the company can grow despite challenges. It is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $1.76B.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $1.76B.
Why it matters: Consumer spending trends impact revenue. Positive trends may signal recovery in the sector, while negative trends could hurt sales.
Watch forConsumer spending grew by more than 2% year over year. This shows a positive change.
Also watch forConsumer spending grew by less than 0%. This suggests ongoing weakness in the sector.
Why it matters: Capex guidance of $125M to $145M is crucial for future growth and investment.
Supportive ifManagement confirms capex guidance remains within the $125M to $145M range.
Worry ifManagement lowers capex guidance to below $125M. This shows less investment planned.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $517 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,821 loss on $10,000 · 48.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth rate reflects overall business health. A decline signals potential trouble.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth below 8.9% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net sales growth above 11.2% year over year.
Why it matters: A downgrade would show worries about future sales and market conditions.
Worry ifNet sales guidance revised down below $1.77 billion.
Less concerning ifNet sales guidance maintained or raised above $1.79 billion.
Why it matters: Opening 25 new stores would show good growth and expansion.
Supportive ifTotal new store openings reach 25 by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifNew store openings fall short of 25 by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on ThriftIQ's rollout may show its effect on sales and efficiency.
Watch forGood results from the ThriftIQ rollout are reported in pilot stores.
Also watch forNo updates or negative news from ThriftIQ pilot stores.
Why it matters: Lower capital spending could slow growth and store openings. This may hurt future revenue.
Worry ifCapital spending was less than $125 million for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending was at or above $125 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This growth shows if the company can keep its sales momentum. Strong sales support the revenue guidance.
Supportive ifU.S. comparable store sales growth above 6.0% in Q3.
Worry ifU.S. comparable store sales growth below 4.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: A margin over 16% shows the company is making more money. This backs the adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 16% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 15% in Q3.
Why it matters: New store openings show the company's growth strategy. More stores can lead to higher sales.
Supportive ifAt least 7 new stores opened by the end of Q3.
Worry ifFewer than 5 new stores opened by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: An update could signal confidence in continued sales growth. This affects investor sentiment.
Watch forRevenue guidance raised to above $1.79 billion.
Also watch forRevenue guidance is now below $1.77 billion.