Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.06+8.17%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SVV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 42.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SVV — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 2, 2026, Evergreen AcqCo GP LLC, S-Evergreen Holding Corp., Evergreen AcqCo 1 LP (the “US Borrower”), Value Village Canada Inc. (the “Canadian Borrower” and, together with the US Borrower, the “Borrowers”), each a subsidiary of Savers Value Village, Inc., and certain of their subsidiaries entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Borrowers’ Credit Agreement, dated as of September 18, 2025 (the “Existing Credit Agreement” and, as ame…
Why it matters: The company raised its profit range and reported three straight quarters of yearly growth. Meeting the new range would extend that progress.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA is at least $265 million, the low end of the latest range.
Worry ifThe company cuts its $265 million to $275 million range, or reports less than $265 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: New stores add sales, but the company must open them and build profits. It had 375 stores at Q2 end.
Watch forThe company opens about 25 stores in fiscal 2026 and reports that new stores perform in line with its plans.
Also watch forThe company cuts its plan below about 25 openings, or says new stores are not meeting its plans.
Why it matters: The company raised its full-year sales outlook after strong U.S. store growth. Q3 sales will test that pace.
Supportive ifOn the November 5 earnings call, Q3 comparable store sales grow more than 3% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 comparable store sales are flat or fall year over year.
Why it matters: The company plans many store openings and a broad ThriftIQ rollout. Spending above its range could raise pressure on cash and debt.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 capital spending is over $145 million, above the stated range.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 capital spending stays at or below $145 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $515 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,842 loss on $10,000 · 38.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.