Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Synchrony Financial (SYF)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$75.03-0.20%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.39 → 10.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SYF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain loans 30+ days past due at or below 4.39% | Synchrony keeps disciplined credit controls, lowering bad loans to 4.39%. | Intact | loans 30+ days past due rise above 4.39% in 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SYF is a consumer-finance business with a credit-sensitive, cyclical profile. Its long-term thesis is intact, and recent momentum has improved, while management execution is neutral overall and the evidence snapshot carries medium confidence.
The valuation signal is stretched, with SYF at a modest premium to peers and expectations broadly aligned with the valuation model. The expectations gap is small, so the current setup does not show a large mismatch between market assumptions and the evidence.
Near term, recent results show stronger purchase volume and loan receivables, while charge-offs and past-due loans improved year over year. Management is delivering on credit discipline, growth, and capital returns, but the evidence also notes a past deep miss and a possible guidance cut as risks.
The multi-year view depends on credit quality staying disciplined as the loan book grows. Near-term risks include a guidance cut and rate cuts from current levels; continued strength from sector bellwethers such as V, MA, and AXP would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SYF’s thesis rests on sustained credit discipline and growth, with valuation already reflecting broadly aligned expectations. The thesis is intact, but its stretched setup leaves limited room for execution to weaken. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It raises dividends 13% to $0.34 per share next quarter. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share fails to reach $0.34 in 2026-Q3 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve positive revenue growth near 6% YoY | A primary condition in Synchrony Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 6% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 0.99% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 22, 20260.994591 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Return capital via share repurchases of at least $971M per quarter | It raises dividends 13% to $0.34 per share next quarter. | Intact | capital returned falls below $971M in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.48 → $10.42 · observed estimates
$16.03B → $15.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.48 | $16,028,760,187 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.48 | $16,003,712,530 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.48 | $16,028,760,187 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.48 | $16,003,712,530 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.48 | $16,028,760,187 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.48 | $16,003,712,530 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.47 | $16,028,760,187 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.44 | $16,024,026,854 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.44 | $16,024,026,854 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.46 | $15,999,275,030 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.46 | $15,999,275,030 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.44 | $16,015,909,965 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.47 | $15,991,665,440 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.47 | $15,991,665,440 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.44 | $16,015,909,965 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.47 | $15,983,288,740 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.47 | $15,983,288,740 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.47 | $15,983,314,990 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.47 | $15,983,314,990 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.44 | $16,015,909,965 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.44 | $16,015,909,965 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.44 | $16,015,909,965 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.44 | $16,015,909,965 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.44 | $16,015,909,965 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.44 | $16,015,909,965 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.44 | $16,002,256,267 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.44 | $16,002,256,267 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.44 | $16,002,256,267 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.44 | $16,002,256,267 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.44 | $16,002,256,267 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.44 | $16,002,256,267 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.44 | $16,002,256,267 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.44 | $16,002,256,267 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.44 | $16,002,256,267 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.44 | $16,002,327,696 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.44 | $16,002,327,696 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.44 | $16,002,327,696 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,371 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,292 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,292 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,292 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,292 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,292 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,292 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,292 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.44 | $16,002,457,292 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.36 | $15,990,642,015 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.36 | $15,990,642,015 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.36 | $15,990,642,015 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.38 | $15,990,642,015 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.38 | $15,990,642,015 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.38 | $15,990,642,015 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.38 | $15,990,642,015 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.38 | $15,982,084,286 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.38 | $15,982,045,939 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.38 | $15,982,045,939 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.38 | $15,982,045,939 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.39 | $15,982,045,939 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.39 | $15,982,045,939 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.39 | $15,975,469,626 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.40 | $15,984,700,395 | 17 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.40 | $15,980,999,313 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.40 | $15,996,570,791 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.40 | $15,996,570,791 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.40 | $15,996,570,791 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.40 | $15,996,570,791 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.41 | $15,992,444,041 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.40 | $15,976,945,589 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.40 | $15,976,945,589 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.40 | $15,976,945,589 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.38 | $15,976,945,589 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.38 | $15,976,945,589 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.38 | $15,976,945,589 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.40 | $15,960,956,652 | 17 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.41 | $15,935,552,490 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.42 | $15,934,326,557 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.42 | $15,934,326,557 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.42 | $15,938,416,422 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.42 | $15,938,416,422 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.42 | $15,938,416,422 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.43 | $15,923,731,880 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.43 | $15,927,517,595 | 18 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.43 | $15,943,251,589 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.43 | $15,943,251,589 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.43 | $15,943,251,589 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.43 | $15,943,251,589 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.42 | $15,945,496,075 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.42 | $15,945,496,075 | 17 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 5 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.