Synchrony Financial (SYF)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.92+0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SYF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -23.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
SYF — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-31
Other Events On July 28, 2026, Synchrony Financial (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, TD Securities (USA) LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters listed on Schedule I to the Underwriting Agreement (collectively, the “Underwriters”), to issue and sell $600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.450% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”) and…
Why it matters: A dividend increase signals confidence in cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the dividend by 13% or more.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is announced during Q2.
Why it matters: Doing the repurchase program well can boost shareholder value. It also shows confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making progress on the $6.5B share repurchase program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays on the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Slower growth may mean weaker consumer spending. This can affect revenue.
Worry ifPurchase volume growth falls below 6% in Q3.
Less concerning ifPurchase volume growth remains above 6% in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher credit losses show worse credit quality. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifQ2 provision for credit losses exceeds $1.5 billion.
Less concerning ifQ2 provision for credit losses stays below $1.2 billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $318 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,762 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Q3 earnings will show if growth momentum continues. This is key for investor confidence.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $2.59. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $2.27, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend increase shows strong finances. It also shows a commitment to return cash.
Supportive ifThe company announces a 13% increase in the cash dividend for the quarter.
Worry ifNo announcement or a lower dividend increase than 13% is made.
Why it matters: Strong net interest income growth shows demand for credit products and effective pricing.
Supportive ifQ2 net interest income grows over 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 net interest income grows less than 2% year over year.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will show if growth in purchase volume and loan receivables continues. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings report shows net earnings growth above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows net earnings decline year over year.
Why it matters: Lower net charge-offs mean good credit quality. This shows strong risk management.
Supportive ifNet charge-offs are less than 5.43% of total average loan receivables.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are over 5.70%. This may show credit quality problems.
Why it matters: A drop in purchase volume signals weaker consumer spending. This can impact revenue growth.
Worry ifPurchase volume falls below $40 billion in a quarter.
Less concerning ifPurchase volume stays above $40 billion.
Why it matters: Worse credit quality can lead to higher credit loss provisions, which affects profits.
Worry if30+ days past due loans increase significantly compared to Q1.
Less concerning if30+ days past due loans decrease or stabilize.
Why it matters: An increase in delinquency rates shows possible credit problems. This could hurt earnings.
Worry ifThe 30+ delinquency rate is over 4.5%. This means more customers are falling behind.
Less concerning ifThe delinquency rate is at or below 4.5%. This suggests stable credit performance.
Why it matters: A confirmed dividend increase shows that management is confident. It also shows they use money well.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend is confirmed at $0.34 per share.
Worry ifThe dividend remains at $0.30 per share or is not increased.
Why it matters: The new CEO of the Digital platform may drive innovation and partnerships. This could boost growth.
Supportive ifDigital growth numbers get much better in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifDigital growth numbers drop or stay the same. This shows a weak leadership change.
Why it matters: Higher delinquency rates can mean more credit risk. This can affect future earnings.
Worry ifQ2 delinquency rate is over 4.5%. This shows worse credit conditions.
Less concerning ifQ2 delinquency rate is at or below 4.2%. This shows stable credit quality.
Why it matters: Adding new partners can drive growth and improve revenue from new customer segments.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of more than 5 new partnerships in Q2.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show weaker credit quality. This can affect earnings.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are over 5.5% of average loan receivables in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are below 5.5% of average loan receivables in Q3.