Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AT&T (T)
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.83+2.06%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.56 → 2.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for T yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advanced Connectivity service revenue grows to about $22.9B in 2026-Q1 | AT&T grows Advanced Connectivity revenue to about $22.9 billion in 2026-Q1. | Under Pressure | Advanced Connectivity revenue falls below $22.0B in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a mature communications business with a growth-and-cost-removal thesis, rather than a speculative growth story. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, but management execution is volatile and confidence in the evidence is medium.
AT&T is cheap versus peers, and the valuation signal is tagged as justified with low fragility. The negative expectations gap suggests the market is not assuming a fully strong outcome, though the evidence does not specify exactly what expectations are embedded.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, and the October 21 earnings event was positive. Advanced Connectivity revenue and customer additions show progress on fiber and wireless convergence, while legacy revenue and costs are declining; delivery on copper removal remains mixed. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk, despite a low near-term miss-risk reading and a history of a deep miss.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued growth in advanced connectivity and further removal of legacy network costs. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and the evidence for how these forces balance is limited.
The 1-3 year view is supported by strong recent results and tangible connectivity growth, but depends on steady execution amid sector headwinds and guidance risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in AT&T's published investment case. The stated target is ~23500 USD_MILLIONS. |
| Under Pressure |
| Capital investment falls below $22.25B in 2026 |
Capital expenditures: $5.061B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~23500 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 21, 20265,061,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain $1.11 dividend per share and $8B share repurchases in 2026 | The company returns capital with $1.11 dividend per share and $8 billion in buybacks planned. | Under Pressure | Dividend cut or repurchases fall below $6B in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Consolidated revenue grows at least 2.9% in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in AT&T's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.9% YoY. | Under Pressure | Revenue growth falls below 2% YoY in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.55 → $2.60 · observed estimates
$132.61B → $130.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.55 | $132,608,060,730 | 24 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.56 | $131,979,368,293 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.56 | $131,979,368,293 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.56 | $131,979,368,293 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.57 | $132,041,943,120 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.56 | $131,974,894,609 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.56 | $131,974,894,609 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.56 | $131,974,894,609 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.56 | $131,974,894,609 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.56 | $131,968,670,390 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.56 | $131,968,670,390 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.56 | $131,968,670,390 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.56 | $131,968,670,390 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.56 | $131,968,670,390 | 24 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.56 | $131,939,299,877 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,713 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,713 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,713 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,713 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,713 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,713 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,713 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,713 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,713 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.56 | $131,939,306,397 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.56 | $131,928,887,894 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.56 | $131,928,887,894 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.56 | $131,928,887,894 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.56 | $131,977,987,893 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.56 | $132,155,237,893 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.56 | $132,170,719,394 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.56 | $132,170,719,394 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.56 | $132,167,667,494 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.56 | $132,167,641,100 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.57 | $132,124,764,690 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.56 | $132,091,816,415 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.56 | $132,091,816,415 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.57 | $132,158,964,649 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.57 | $132,158,964,649 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.57 | $132,158,964,649 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.57 | $132,150,903,005 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.57 | $132,198,570,500 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.57 | $132,198,570,500 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.57 | $132,198,570,500 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.57 | $132,198,570,500 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.57 | $132,198,570,500 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.57 | $132,198,570,500 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.57 | $132,198,577,694 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.58 | $131,455,897,185 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.59 | $130,498,382,444 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.59 | $130,295,632,444 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.59 | $130,295,632,444 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.59 | $130,295,632,444 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.59 | $130,295,632,444 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.59 | $130,300,082,444 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.59 | $130,300,082,444 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.59 | $130,300,096,464 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.59 | $130,300,096,464 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.60 | $130,133,446,464 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.60 | $130,133,446,464 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.60 | $130,133,446,464 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.60 | $130,133,446,464 | 14 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.