AT&T (T)
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecom ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$21.06+2.33%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.06. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 T trades at 9.7× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $25–$28. Note: our $30 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($25–$28). Not investment advice.
$25.00 – $28.00 (median $28.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.79/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $28.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $83.09 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $87.97 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $28.62 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $29.54 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $54.35 | 23.6 | 2.30 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $19.80 | 5.8 | 6.51 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $39.68 | 16.1 | 2.47 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $51.28 | 23.6 | 2.17 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $21.62 | 1.2 | 18.01 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $13.98 | 6.4 | 2.17 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $22.10 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $21.73 | 10.0 | 2.17 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $51.81 | 23.6 | 2.19 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $75.31 | 23.6 | 3.19 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $50.71 | 16.1 | 3.16 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $75.17 | 23.6 | 3.18 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $28.26 | 1.2 | 23.54 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $20.49 | 6.4 | 3.18 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $31.85 | 10.0 | 3.18 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $93.60 | 23.6 | 3.96 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $59.71 | 16.1 | 3.72 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $99.41 | 23.6 | 4.21 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $37.38 | 1.2 | 31.13 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $27.09 | 6.4 | 4.21 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $42.13 | 10.0 | 4.21 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.