AT&T (T)
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.68-1.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · T
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
T — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-17
Other Events. On August 17, 2026, AT&T Inc. (“AT&T”) closed its sale of (i) €1,200,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its Floating Rate Global Notes due 2028 (the “Euro Notes”) pursuant to an Underwriting Agreement, dated August 7, 2026 (the “Euro Underwriting Agreement”), between AT&T and Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch, as the Underwriter, and (ii) $1,100,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its Floating Rate Global Notes due 2028 (the “USD Notes” and, together with the Euro Notes, the…
Why it matters: A drop over 20% shows problems in moving away from old services, hurting profits.
Worry ifLegacy service revenue decline exceeds 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifLegacy service revenue decline is less than 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher convergence rate shows good integration of internet and wireless services. This drives revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe number of fiber and wireless customers will be over 45% in future quarters.
Worry ifThe convergence rate falls below 42% in future quarters.
Why it matters: Faster share buybacks show that management believes in AT&T's financial strength and growth.
Supportive ifShare repurchases reach or exceed $10 billion in 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall short of $10 billion in 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting fiber expansion targets is key to AT&T's growth strategy. It shows their ability to capture more customers.
Supportive ifAT&T reaches over 40 million total fiber locations by the end of 2026.
Worry ifFiber locations remain below 38 million by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $259 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,946 loss on $10,000 · 29.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completion would enhance AT&T's spectrum holdings and support growth in 5G and fiber services.
Supportive ifThey announced the successful closing of the EchoStar spectrum deal.
Worry ifThey announced delays or failure in closing the EchoStar spectrum deal.
Why it matters: Fast share buybacks show management's trust in AT&T's finances and growth.
Supportive ifAT&T buys back about $10 billion in shares by the end of 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall significantly short of $10 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Postpaid phone net adds are a key indicator of customer growth. A decline could signal market share loss.
Worry ifPostpaid phone net adds reported at 250,000 or more.
Less concerning ifPostpaid phone net adds reported below 250,000.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for dividends and share buybacks. A drop could impact shareholder returns.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported at $18 billion or more for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported below $18 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: More money for investment is key for network growth and better services. It impacts future growth.
Watch forManagement says capital investment is up over 10% from last year.
Also watch forManagement says they are investing less money than last year.
Why it matters: Changes in capital investment will impact AT&T's network growth. It will also affect their services.
Watch forAT&T raises capital investment guidance above the $23 billion to $24 billion range for 2026.
Also watch forCapital investment guidance is lowered. It is now below the $23 billion to $24 billion range for 2026.