Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$73.54-5.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.12 → 6.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TDW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
gross margin near 50% | A primary condition in Tidewater, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 49% to 51%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 49% in FY26 | Gross margin: 28.45% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 49% to 51%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 202628.447765 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TDW is an energy-sector business with a cyclical backdrop, where results can move with sector conditions. The long-term thesis is intact, but management execution is volatile and recent financial performance is neutral, so the evidence does not support a stronger quality label.
TDW is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium and an expectations gap that points to meaningful optimism already reflected in the setup. The valuation model has low confidence, and the snapshot flags high fragility from expensive valuation, weak execution quality, and a turbulent sector regime.
Near term, 2026 revenue guidance remains $1.42 billion to $1.48 billion, and second-quarter revenue rose from the first quarter as operating income also increased. The Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition closed on August 31, with integration still ongoing. Execution is on track for guidance and operational efficiency, but recent-quarter misses and a high-miss-rate industry make the next results a risk to watch.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on TDW maintaining guidance without a reversal, which could weaken management credibility. Sector support also depends on bellwethers SLB, BKR, and HAL continuing to report strong results and guidance. Successful acquisition integration and continued operating improvements would support the multi-year view.
For the 1-to-3-year view, TDW has a steady operating base and sector tailwind, but an expensive valuation leaves limited room for execution setbacks. The thesis remains intact, with guidance credibility, integration, and sector results as key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It aims for 2026 revenue near $1.45 billion. |
| Intact |
| revenue falls below $1.33 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: $342.287M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.45B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026342,287,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are modestly revising our 2026 revenue guidance range of $1.42 billion to $1.47 billion and our 2026 gross margin guidance range of 49% to 50% to account for the approximately two-month delay in the closing of the WSUT transaction and continued elevated, but declining, operating costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East.” “We are comfortable reiterating our 2026 revenue guidance of $1.43 billion to $1.48 billion and a 49% to 51% margin, assuming a closing of the Wilsons acquisition by the end of the second quarter of 2026, given the positive momentum we see for the business in the back half of the year somewhat tempered by some near-term friction we see on the cost side in the Middle East.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
complete Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition | The Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition should boost growth. | Intact | acquisition not completed by mid 2026 | Acquisition completed 2026-08-31 vs mid-2026 target News and filings confirm the acquisition closed on August 31, 2026, ahead of the mid-2026 deadline. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are modestly revising our 2026 revenue guidance range of $1.42 billion to $1.47 billion and our 2026 gross margin guidance range of 49% to 50% to account for the approximately two-month delay in the closing of the WSUT transaction and continued elevated, but declining, operating costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East.” “We are comfortable reiterating our 2026 revenue guidance of $1.43 billion to $1.48 billion and a 49% to 51% margin, assuming a closing of the Wilsons acquisition by the end of the second quarter of 2026, given the positive momentum we see for the business in the back half of the year somewhat tempered by some near-term friction we see on the cost side in the Middle East.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.26 → $6.32 · observed estimates
$1.65B → $1.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.26 | $1,645,277,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.26 | $1,645,277,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.26 | $1,645,277,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.00 | $1,659,255,804 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.26 | $1,645,277,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.00 | $1,659,255,804 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.00 | $1,659,255,804 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.26 | $1,645,277,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.00 | $1,659,255,804 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.26 | $1,645,277,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.26 | $1,645,277,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.26 | $1,645,277,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.86 | $1,652,001,270 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.23 | $1,649,101,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.29 | $1,650,375,330 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.94 | $1,663,739,843 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.07 | $1,688,166,496 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.14 | $1,694,055,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.12 | $1,693,215,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.12 | $1,693,215,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.12 | $1,693,215,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.12 | $1,693,215,266 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.25 | $1,700,039,184 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.25 | $1,700,039,184 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.25 | $1,700,039,184 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.25 | $1,700,039,184 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.25 | $1,700,039,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.25 | $1,700,039,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.25 | $1,700,039,440 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.25 | $1,700,079,218 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.25 | $1,700,079,218 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.25 | $1,700,079,218 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.25 | $1,700,079,218 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.25 | $1,700,079,218 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.25 | $1,700,079,218 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.25 | $1,700,079,218 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.28 | $1,701,911,662 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.28 | $1,701,911,662 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.28 | $1,701,911,662 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.28 | $1,701,911,662 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.28 | $1,701,911,662 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.28 | $1,701,911,662 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.28 | $1,701,911,662 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.28 | $1,701,911,662 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.32 | $1,706,133,884 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.32 | $1,706,133,884 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.32 | $1,706,133,884 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.32 | $1,706,133,884 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.32 | $1,706,133,884 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.32 | $1,706,133,884 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.32 | $1,706,133,884 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.