Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$94.26-0.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TDW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 81.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TDW — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-31
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended and Restated Sale and Purchase Agreement As previously disclosed, on February 22, 2026, the Company entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement (the “ Original SPA ”), by and among Wilson Sons S.A. (“ Wilson Sons ”), Ultranav International II, S.A. (“ Ultranav ”), Remolcadores Ultratug Limitada (“ Remolcadores ”, together with Wilson Sons and Ultranav, the “ Sellers ”), the Target Companies, the Company, and Pan Marine do Brasil Ltda., a comp…
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth could help Tidewater. It may improve market conditions.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up back toward its highs.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains stagnant or declines.
Why it matters: Higher day rates show more demand for offshore vessels. This means better market conditions.
Supportive ifAverage day rate increases above $22,500 per day in the North Sea.
Worry ifAverage day rate declines below $22,000 per day in the North Sea.
Why it matters: Stable costs in the Middle East will help profits. This is important during ongoing conflicts.
Supportive ifOperating costs in the Middle East stay at high levels.
Worry ifOperating costs rise a lot due to conflict in the region.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition is key for Tidewater's growth in the Brazilian market. It will add 22 vessels to their fleet and enhance their market position.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close on or before September 1, 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close by September 1, 2026, or is delayed further.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$161 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $495 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,910 loss on $10,000 · 29.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher costs can hurt profits. Watching this helps understand how global issues affect operations.
Worry ifConflict costs are below $13.1 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifConflict costs are above $13.1 million for 2026.
Why it matters: This guidance shows Tidewater can grow despite challenges. It shows stability and demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance remains within the range of $1.42 to $1.48 billion.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 revenue guidance to less than $1.42 billion.
Why it matters: More net income shows better financial performance. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 net income increases from $6.14M.
Worry ifQ2 net income decreases further.
Why it matters: The WSUT acquisition could boost revenue and market presence. Monitoring its effects is key.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is over $350 million. This shows good growth from WSUT.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is under $330 million. This points to problems with integration or low demand.
Why it matters: A steady gross margin shows good cost control. It also shows strong demand for offshore services.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin reported at or above 49%, showing effective cost control.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin drops below 46%, indicating rising costs or demand issues.
Why it matters: Higher day rates show strong demand for offshore support vessels. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifAverage day rate increases to $23,500 or higher in Q3.
Worry ifThe average day rate drops below $22,500 in Q3. This shows demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Ongoing costs from the conflict may affect profitability and cash flow.
Worry ifConflict-related costs are under $10 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifConflict-related costs go over $15 million in Q3. This shows conditions are getting worse.