Tidewater, Inc. (TDW)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$73.54-5.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TDW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 120.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 97.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers
TDW — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-05
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. BNDES Construction Loans: Effectiveness of Amendments; Termination of Legacy Parent Company Guarantees As previously disclosed, on August 31, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), Tidewater Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Tidewater ” or the “ Company ”), completed its acquisition (the “ Transaction ”) of all outstanding capital stock of Wilson, Sons Ultratug Participações S.A. (now known as Tidewater Offshore do Brasil S.A., “ WSUT ”) and Atlantic Offshore S…
Why it matters: Middle East costs cut into Q2 margins. Tidewater also said it expects some customer refunds for direct costs.
Worry ifTidewater reports 2026 conflict costs above $13.1 million, or less than $7.6 million in costs it can bill back.
Less concerning ifTidewater reports 2026 conflict costs of $13.1 million or less. At least $7.6 million is billable to customers.
Why it matters: New term contracts reached $24,341 per day in Q2, up 7.5% from Q1. Another rise would support stronger vessel demand.
Supportive ifThe next reported weighted average leading edge day rate is above $24,341 per day.
Worry ifThe next reported weighted average leading edge day rate is $24,341 per day or lower.
Why it matters: WSUT added 22 Brazilian PSVs. Q3 results can show if the fleet adds sales while Tidewater keeps its margin guide.
Watch forTidewater reports WSUT revenue in Q3 and keeps 2026 gross margin guidance at 49% to 50% or raises it.
Also watch forTidewater cites WSUT integration costs or delays. It cuts 2026 gross margin guidance to below 49%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $497 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,910 loss on $10,000 · 29.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.