Truist Financial (TFC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.65+0.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
TFC — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-15
CEO and President — William H. Rogers, Jr.: William H. Rogers, Jr. is retiring as CEO and President with a named successor.
Why it matters: Changes in asset quality can show credit risk. This affects Truist's overall profits.
Worry ifNCO ratio rises above 0.61% for two consecutive quarters.
Less concerning ifNCO ratio remains below 0.61% for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategies may impact capital management. A stable or improving CET1 ratio signals strong financial health.
Watch forCET1 ratio remains above 10.9% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forCET1 ratio drops below 10.9% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show worse asset quality and more credit risk.
Worry ifNet charge-off ratio exceeds 0.65% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-off ratio remains below 0.65% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The new CEO's performance is key for keeping growth and direction on track.
Watch forThe market reacted well. Performance got better in Q4 with new CEO Mike Lyons.
Also watch forThe market reacted poorly. Performance fell in Q4 with new CEO Mike Lyons.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,068 loss on $10,000 · 20.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Worsening asset quality may lead to more credit risk. This could impact future earnings.
Worry ifThe nonperforming loans ratio rises above 0.55% in Q3.
Less concerning ifThe nonperforming loans ratio stays below 0.55%. This shows stable asset quality.
Why it matters: Weak growth in noninterest income may mean lower fee-based revenue.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest income growth is below 5% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 noninterest income growth exceeds 5% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable asset quality is key for Truist's financial health and investor trust.
Supportive ifNonperforming loans and leases remain at or below 0.50% of loans and leases HFI.
Worry ifNonperforming loans and leases rise above 0.50% of loans and leases HFI.
Why it matters: The changes could increase net interest income. This is important for Truist's profits. It shows how well the company manages its money.
Supportive ifNet interest income goes up by $160 million in Q2 2024 due to the changes.
Worry ifNet interest income does not increase by the expected $160 million in Q2 2024.
Why it matters: A high capital return ratio means strong returns for shareholders. It shows confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifIn Q3, the capital return ratio is over 50%. This shows a strong commitment to shareholders.
Worry ifThe capital return ratio is below 50%. This suggests less confidence in cash flow or profits.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows weaker interest income. This would hurt total revenue.
Worry ifIn Q3, net interest income was below $3.60 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest income remains above $3.60 billion.
Why it matters: Her experience may change Truist's plans and how they manage risks.
Watch forBoard decisions improve after Bessant joins.
Also watch forNo clear changes in board decisions after her appointment.
Why it matters: Truist's growth is tied to the financial sector. A drop could indicate broader challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin signals potential pressure on profitability. This could affect earnings growth.
Worry ifIn Q3, net interest margin is below 2.95%. This shows higher funding costs or lower loan spreads.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin is at or above 2.95%. This means profitability is stable.
Why it matters: The new CEO may shift capital return strategies, impacting shareholder value. This is a key focus for investors.
Watch forA new capital return plan was announced. It will increase repurchase or dividend levels.
Also watch forThere are no changes to the capital return plan after the CEO change.
Why it matters: A decline in the CET1 ratio could raise concerns about Truist's capital strength.
Worry ifCET1 ratio drops below 10.5% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCET1 ratio remains above 10.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm Truist's ability to enhance execution of its growth initiatives. It shows the company is on track with its revenue goals.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue increases by more than 1% over Q1 2026 revenue of $5.15 billion.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is less than or equal to 1% over Q1 2026 revenue.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income shows how well Truist manages lending and deposit rates. This impacts overall profits.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest income increases year over year by more than 1%.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income decreases year over year or grows less than 1%.
Why it matters: The CET1 capital ratio shows Truist's financial strength. A strong ratio supports growth and stability.
Supportive ifCET1 capital ratio increases above 11% in Q3.
Worry ifCET1 capital ratio falls below 10% in Q3.