Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tecogen Inc (TGEN)
AMEXIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.71-9.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.13 → 0.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TGEN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase gross profit to at least $2.59 million quarterly | Tecogen aims to secure $8 million in new orders quarterly. | Improving | gross profit falls below $2 million in any quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Gross margin increased to 37.8% in the three months ended June 30, 2026 compared to 33.8% for the same period in 2025.” ““Operationally, gross profit margin expanded to >40% compared to the end of last year and we are executing on cost reductions to streamline expenses, with the full impact of these cuts expected in the third quarter of this year.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making growth business rather than a proven compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: management is stable, but recent financial performance is weak and momentum has declined.
The valuation evidence calls TGEN cheap versus peers, with a small negative expectations gap, meaning the market’s assumptions are slightly below the model’s view. Pricing fragility is low, but the evidence does not show that the business risks are resolved.
Near term, results may remain pressured: product revenue fell year over year, cash flow from operations was negative, and cash declined from Q1 to Q2. Gross margin improved year over year in Q2 but has varied by quarter, while progress on orders, data center sales, and lower cash burn remains mixed.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on converting new orders into product revenue, improving margins, and reducing cash use. Guidance cuts would add a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the 1 to 3 year view, TGEN remains a high-risk, loss-making business with some valuation support but limited evidence yet that its stated priorities are translating into durable financial progress. The thesis hinges on better revenue conversion and cash performance, alongside the next guidance update and industrial-sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Secure at least $8 million in new orders quarterly | Tecogen aims to secure $8 million in new orders quarterly. | Improving | new orders fall below $6 million in any quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve positive operating cash flow | The company is working to fix its negative cash flow. | Broken | operating cash flow remains negative beyond 2026-Q4 | Cash from operations: $-2.353M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0 operating cash flow. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 2026-2,353,445 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.18 → $0.13 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.21 | $62,026,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.21 | $62,026,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.21 | $62,026,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.21 | $62,026,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.21 | $62,026,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.21 | $62,026,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.18 | $62,026,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.13 | $59,036,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.