Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hanover Insurance (THG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$249.25-0.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
19.54 → 19.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for THG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operations above $300 million next quarter | A primary condition in Hanover Insurance's published investment case. The stated target is >=300 million USD. | Improving | Cash from operations stays below $200 million next quarter | Cash from operations: $519.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=300 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026519,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
THG is an insurance-sector business with a growth and capital-return case, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value story. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent earnings beats are positive, but performance remains below its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile.
The valuation model shows THG trading at a 1.41 times premium to peers, with a durable premium as the main reason and an expectations gap of 0.04. The priced-in assessment calls this premium justified and fragility low, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between market expectations and the current thesis.
Near term, premium growth has continued, but the combined ratio, which compares claims and expenses with premiums, worsened to 92.3% from 91.1% a year earlier. Management has reported repurchases and named technology and AI investment as priorities, but the supplied figures do not show the contribution from that investment. Recent earnings beats support the picture, while guidance cuts and a history of a deep miss remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on maintaining underwriting discipline and profitable growth without another guidance cut. Continued earnings strength at sector peers CB, PGR, and TRV could support sector momentum, while the evidence flags rate cuts as a sector risk. The stated capital-return activity and the effect of technology investment also matter, but delivery evidence on the latter is limited.
For a 1-to-3-year view, THG has continued premium growth and recent earnings beats, but mixed underwriting results and fragile earnings quality leave execution as the central question. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase operating income to at least $250 million next quarter |
| Operating income rose to $250 million. |
| Under Pressure |
| operating income falls below $186 million next quarter |
Operating income: $244.4M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=250 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026244,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement $700 million share repurchase program fully | The company started a $700 million share buyback. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$18.63 → $19.76 · observed estimates
$6.96B → $6.90B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $18.63 | $6,957,938,220 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $18.63 | $6,957,938,220 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $18.50 | $6,925,841,148 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $18.63 | $6,957,938,220 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $18.63 | $6,957,938,220 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $18.56 | $6,925,841,148 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $18.63 | $6,957,938,220 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $19.20 | $6,954,022,770 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $19.02 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $19.20 | $6,954,022,770 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $19.48 | $7,060,268,680 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $19.48 | $7,060,268,680 | 8 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $19.18 | $6,938,546,715 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $19.47 | $6,929,495,601 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $19.50 | $6,929,464,068 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $19.54 | $6,942,169,868 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $19.54 | $6,942,169,868 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $19.54 | $6,942,169,868 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $19.54 | $6,942,169,868 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $19.57 | $6,945,308,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $19.74 | $6,943,241,928 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $19.76 | $6,902,908,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $19.76 | $6,902,908,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $19.76 | $6,902,908,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $19.76 | $6,902,908,594 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $19.76 | $6,902,908,594 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.