Hanover Insurance (THG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$228.38-1.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · THG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
THG — CFO transition
Dated 2026-05-13
Principal Accounting Officer — Patricia A. Norton-Gatto: Patricia A. Norton-Gatto was promoted to Principal Accounting Officer.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for growth and money management.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases back above $378 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations remains below $118 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More growth in investment income helps overall profits and financial strength.
Supportive ifNet investment income growth was above 13.4%.
Worry ifNet investment income growth was below 13.4%.
Why it matters: A combined ratio under 90% shows strong profits from underwriting. This helps ongoing growth.
Supportive ifCombined ratio goes below 90% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifCombined ratio stays above 90% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Slower growth in investment income may show problems in making returns on assets.
Worry ifNet investment income growth falls below 10% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet investment income growth exceeds 10% in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $209 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,002 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady premium growth shows good market strategies and strong demand for products.
Supportive ifNet premiums written growth exceeds 5% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifNet premiums written growth falls below 3% for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show confidence in financial strength. This helps support stock value.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $100 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases remain below $100 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More investment income can boost overall profits and help with capital returns.
Supportive ifNet investment income reported above $119.6 million in Q3.
Worry ifNet investment income reported below $100 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows strong pricing plans. It also shows careful execution.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income exceeds $250 million, showing growth from Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is less than $250 million.
Why it matters: A high return on equity shows good management of money. It also means the company makes money.
Supportive ifOperating return on equity is above 20% in Q2.
Worry ifOperating return on equity falls below 18%. This may mean there are profit problems.
Why it matters: Faster share buybacks show management's faith in future earnings and strong finances.
Supportive ifCompany buys back over $100 million in shares next quarter.
Worry ifRepurchases slow down significantly, with less than $50 million bought back in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below its median, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 12% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 12%.