TJX Companies (TJX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
$154.10+1.84%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $154.10. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $154 the market pays 30× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $119 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $160–$197. Note: our $119 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($160–$197). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $169 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$160.00 – $197.00 (median $185.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-21
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 66% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 18.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.69/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $185.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $179.78 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $182.89 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $43.70 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $32.81 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $67.67 | 13.6 | 4.97 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $142.90 | 20.2 | 7.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $94.93 | 19.4 | 4.89 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $70.05 | 13.6 | 5.15 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $21.93 | 0.4 | 54.99 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $41.87 | 8.1 | 5.15 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $28.09 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $154.10 | 29.9 | 5.15 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $73.43 | 13.6 | 5.40 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $82.48 | 13.6 | 6.06 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $131.32 | 19.4 | 6.76 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $85.28 | 13.6 | 6.27 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $26.54 | 0.4 | 66.54 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $50.96 | 8.1 | 6.27 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $187.59 | 29.9 | 6.27 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $94.12 | 13.6 | 6.92 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $163.04 | 19.4 | 8.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $96.57 | 13.6 | 7.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $30.05 | 0.4 | 75.35 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $57.71 | 8.1 | 7.10 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $212.43 | 29.9 | 7.10 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.