TJX Companies (TJX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$132.08-0.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TJX
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $132 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $113 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $145–$198. Note: our $113 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($145–$198). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $133 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $176.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $42.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $33.63 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $91.67 | 17.9 | 4.97 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
$145.00 – $198.00 (median $176.50) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-08-31
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 45% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.82/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1, 2027-Q2
| $86.11 |
| 16.3 |
| 5.27 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $20.28 | 0.4 | 55.83 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $34.14 | 6.5 | 5.27 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $28.52 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $157.30 | 29.8 | 5.27 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $90.99 | 16.3 | 5.57 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $104.76 | 16.3 | 6.41 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $24.52 | 0.4 | 67.51 | Analyst | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $41.53 | 6.5 | 6.41 | Analyst | low |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $191.35 | 29.8 | 6.41 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $118.53 | 16.3 | 7.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $27.75 | 0.4 | 76.39 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $46.99 | 6.5 | 7.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $216.52 | 29.8 | 7.25 | Analyst | medium |