Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
TJX Companies (TJX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$138.59-4.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.77 → 5.75 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TJX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pretax profit margin near 12% | Profit margins are strong near 12%. | Intact | pretax profit margin falls below 11.9% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Excluding an expected net benefit of 0.3 percentage points from tariff refunds, the Company is increasing its full-year adjusted pretax profit margin outlook to be in the range of 12.0% to 12.1%.” “The Company is increasing its pretax profit margin outlook to be in the range of 11.9% to 12.0% and raising its diluted earnings per share outlook to be in the range of $5.08 to $5.15.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TJX is a steady retail growth business with a durable premium relative to peers, rather than a turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance, but earnings quality is flagged as fragile and confidence in the assessment is medium.
TJX is rated expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap that suggests some optimism is already reflected in its valuation. The priced-in assessment flags that this premium is not fully justified given expensive valuation and weak execution quality; confidence in that assessment is low.
Near-term results have been strong: reported comparable sales were 6% in 2026-Q1 and 4% in 2026-Q2, while management raised its FY27 comparable-sales guidance and margin outlook. Capital-return plans are also on track, but a recent quarterly miss and a prior deep miss keep execution risk in view; the recent president transitions are noted as neutral.
Over the next few quarters, a reversal that leads management to cut guidance after raising it would damage credibility as well as lower expectations. Sector signals matter too: continued strong results and guidance from ROST, BURL, and LULU would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, TJX’s operating progress supports an intact thesis, but its expensive valuation and fragile earnings quality make continued delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Comparable sales growth at or above 3% to 4% annually | A primary condition in TJX Companies's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% to 4% comp sales growth. | Intact | comparable sales growth falls below 3% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For the full year Fiscal 2027, the Company continues to expect consolidated comparable sales to be up 3% to 4%.” “For the full year Fiscal 2027, the Company is raising its consolidated comparable sales outlook to be up 3% to 4%.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Share buybacks of $2.75 to $3.0 billion annually | A supporting condition in TJX Companies's published investment case. The stated target is $2.75 to $3.0 billion total buybacks. | Intact | annual share buybacks fall below $2.75 billion in FY27 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.76 → $5.75 · observed estimates
$67.89B → $67.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.76 | $67,890,730,225 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.76 | $67,890,730,225 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.76 | $67,890,730,225 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.76 | $67,890,730,225 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.76 | $67,890,730,225 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.72 | $67,875,209,359 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.72 | $67,853,533,970 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.76 | $67,891,434,679 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.77 | $67,978,176,741 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.79 | $68,055,325,362 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.79 | $68,055,318,557 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.79 | $68,055,318,557 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.79 | $68,055,318,557 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.79 | $68,055,318,557 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.79 | $68,055,318,557 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.79 | $68,055,318,557 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.78 | $68,046,892,240 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.78 | $68,046,892,240 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.78 | $68,046,892,240 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.78 | $68,046,892,240 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.78 | $68,048,052,922 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.78 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.77 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.77 | $68,030,676,452 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.77 | $68,030,681,715 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.76 | $68,001,313,538 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.76 | $68,001,313,538 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.76 | $68,001,313,538 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.76 | $67,985,033,878 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.76 | $67,966,932,184 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.76 | $67,966,932,184 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.76 | $67,966,932,184 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.76 | $67,966,932,184 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.75 | $67,965,174,493 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.75 | $67,965,174,493 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.75 | $67,965,174,493 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.75 | $67,965,174,493 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.75 | $67,965,174,493 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.75 | $67,965,174,493 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.75 | $67,965,174,493 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.75 | $67,945,276,043 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.75 | $67,945,276,043 | 13 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.