TJX Companies (TJX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$132.08-0.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
TJX grows sales about 6% yearly, beating its 3-4% target. Profit margins are strong near 12%. The company buys back billions in stock, returning cash to shareholders. It has a solid track record of earnings beats.
TJX trades at a high price with a PE near 30, well above peers at 13.6. Revenue growth could slow below 6%. Rising costs or weaker sales could pressure profit margins and cash returns.
The market prices in about 6.4% revenue growth and a stretched valuation 29% above our fair value near $119. Our fair value is 36% below the Street median, reflecting caution on growth sustainability.
Breaks if: pretax profit margin falls below 11.9% in FY27
Breaks if: comparable sales growth falls below 3% in FY27
Breaks if: annual share buybacks fall below $2.75 billion in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and a commitment to growth targets.
The market appears to price in a stretched valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. However, there is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors may not expect significant positive surprises.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management is on track to meet growth and margin targets. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for economic headwinds and a history of recent misses.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on growth targets. Additionally, sector performance from peers like ROST, BURL, and LULU will be crucial for sustaining momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports an increase in full-year comp sales growth to 3% to 4%. Additionally, the pretax profit margin outlook has been raised to 11.9% to 12.0% for FY27. These factors indicate improved expectations for TJX's performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The company plans to increase its share buyback range to $2.75 to $3.0 billion for FY27.
Overall, TJX's long-term outlook remains stable, but it faces challenges that could impact its trajectory. Not investment advice.