TJX Companies (TJX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$132.08-0.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TJX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: A small rise may show caution in cash use or less trust in future earnings.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase of less than 13% for FY27.
Less concerning ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase of 13% or more for FY27.
Why it matters: This may show a change in how money is spent. It could affect investor trust.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks in FY27 reported below $2.75 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal share buybacks in FY27 reported at or above $3.0 billion.
Why it matters: A lower EPS means weaker earnings. This may change how investors feel.
Worry ifQ2 FY27 diluted EPS reported below $1.15.
Less concerning ifQ2 FY27 diluted EPS reported above $1.17.
Why it matters: Weak performance from peers like AMZN or HD could indicate broader sector challenges.
Watch forPeer retail sales growth reported below 1% year over year.
Also watch forPeer retail sales growth reported above 3% year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $192 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,203 loss on $10,000 · 22.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A confirmed dividend increase would show strong cash flow. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share.
Worry ifNo announcement of the planned dividend increase in March 2026.
Why it matters: A dividend increase would show strong cash flow. It shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase of at least 13% in March 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in March 2026.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can maintain its growth trend. A drop below 3% may signal weakness in consumer demand.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth was less than 3%.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales growth was more than 3%.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may mean higher costs or lower prices. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifPretax profit margin was less than 12.0%.
Less concerning ifPretax profit margin was more than 12.0%.
Why it matters: Confirming the store growth rate shows the company's commitment to expansion. This can drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms a 4% store growth rate for FY28.
Worry ifManagement retracts or lowers the store growth rate for FY28.
Why it matters: A lower buyback plan may show a change in spending priorities. This can impact returns.
Worry ifShare buyback plan was below $2.75 billion.
Less concerning ifShare buyback plan is at or above $2.75 billion.