TJX Companies (TJX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$138.59-4.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TJX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 46.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers
TJX — President transition
Dated 2026-10-20
Senior Executive Vice President, Group President — Kenneth Canestrari: The filing announces a planned, orderly retirement of a senior executive with a defined transition period, which is not a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Marmaxx comps slowed to 1% in Q2. Management said they improved at the start of Q3.
Supportive ifQ3 Marmaxx comparable sales reach 3% or more, up from 1% in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 Marmaxx comparable sales stay at 1% or fall below it.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted pretax margin rose to 11.9%, excluding the net tariff refund benefit. A 12.0% full-year outlook would show further margin gains.
Supportive ifThe November 18 update raises adjusted FY27 pretax margin guidance to 12.0% or more.
Worry ifThe update cuts adjusted FY27 pretax margin guidance below 11.9%.
Why it matters: TJX plans to raise store growth to 4% starting in FY28 and target 7,500 stores. Store counts and opening plans can show if this expansion is moving ahead.
Supportive ifA company update confirms FY28 store growth of 4% and reports openings in line with that pace.
Worry ifA company update delays the 4% growth plan or lowers the 7,500-store target.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $213 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,706 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.