Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alpha Teknova, Inc. (TKNO)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.88+6.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TKNO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate positive free cash flow near $10 million | Management reaffirmed a positive free cash flow outlook near $10 million. | Broken | free cash flow remains negative or below $5 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-596,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $10 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-596,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TKNO is a higher-risk growth business, not a proven durable compounder: it is loss-making, but recent revenue growth and a 2026 guidance increase support the growth case. The multi-year view is intact, though evidence on sustained profitability and new product adoption remains limited.
The valuation model labels expectations as justified, with no stated fragility signals, but the shares carry a 3.24 premium versus peers and the model has low confidence. The negative expectations gap suggests the setup may allow room for execution to differ from assumptions, but the evidence does not specify exactly what growth the market expects.
Near term, revenue has risen from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and management raised its full-year revenue guidance to $45-47 million. The cash outlook also improved, with expected full-year free cash outflow reduced to less than $8 million, though first-half outflow already accounts for a material share of that limit. Loss-making results and elevated risk remain important, while usage and customer adoption of the Build-Tek configurator are not yet evidenced.
The multi-year thesis depends on TKNO delivering its higher revenue guidance while keeping cash outflow within the revised limit. A reversal of the recent guidance increase would damage confidence, while continued weakness in jobs data could pressure cyclical healthcare names. Strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
The 1-3 year view remains intact, supported by revenue progress and a stronger sector backdrop, but it is still an execution-dependent, loss-making business with elevated risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross profit rose from $3.24M to $3.78M in recent quarters, showing margin improvement. |
| Improving |
| gross profit falls below $3.2 million per quarter |
Gross profit: $4.826M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: gross profit increases to at least $3.78 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 5, 20264,826,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $42-44 million | A primary condition in Alpha Teknova, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $42 million. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $40 million in FY26 | Revenue: $12.704M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $42 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202612,704,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are therefore raising our 2026 revenue guidance to $46-48 million and maintaining our expectations for full-year Free Cash Outflow of less than $8 million,” he explained.” “We are therefore raising our 2026 revenue guidance to $45-47 million and adjusting down our expectations for full-year Free Cash Outflow to less than $8 million,” he explained.” Revenue was $12.704 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.28 → $-0.26 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.28 | $50,373,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.24 | $50,283,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.24 | $50,283,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.28 | $50,373,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.24 | $50,283,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.28 | $50,373,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.24 | $50,283,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.24 | $50,283,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.28 | $50,373,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.24 | $50,283,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.28 | $50,373,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.28 | $50,373,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.24 | $50,283,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.24 | $50,283,830 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.26 | $51,748,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.24 | $51,606,170 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.26 | $51,748,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.19 | $51,828,430 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.26 | $51,748,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.26 | $51,748,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.26 | $51,748,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.26 | $51,748,143 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.26 | $51,748,143 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.26 | $51,748,143 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.26 | $51,748,143 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.27 | $52,328,400 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.26 | $52,449,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.26 | $52,674,850 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.26 | $52,679,600 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.