Alpha Teknova, Inc. (TKNO)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.92-4.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TKNO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 46.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TKNO — officer change
Dated 2026-06-01
Director — Irene Davis: Ms. Davis retired from the Board due to her other personal and professional interests.
Why it matters: Higher margins show better cost control. This can help increase profits.
Supportive ifGross profit margin was above 34% in Q2. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifGross profit margin was below 34% in Q2. This indicates margin pressure.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows strong growth and confidence in Teknova's business. It shows the company's recovery and market position.
Supportive ifTotal revenue for 2026 reaches at least $45 million.
Worry ifTotal revenue for 2026 falls below $45 million.
Why it matters: Better margins show the company controls costs. It also works efficiently.
Supportive ifGross profit margin should be over 40% in the next quarters.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 40% in upcoming quarters.
Why it matters: A return to faster revenue growth would signal a positive shift in company momentum. This could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth re-accelerates back toward its previous highs of near 10%.
Worry ifRevenue growth is slowing down or remains below current levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$273 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $689 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,876 loss on $10,000 · 68.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Teknova is doing financially and its progress.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and cash flow metrics meeting or exceeding guidance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows big misses on revenue or cash flow goals.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue goals shows strong business growth. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported between $10.5M and $11.5M, supporting the annual target.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $10.5M. This shows challenges in meeting yearly goals.
Why it matters: If the company meets or beats this growth rate, it shows strong progress.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth of 18% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth below 18% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target would show the company's growth and support the new guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue of $11.5 million or more would validate the raised full-year guidance of $45-47 million.
Worry ifIf Q3 revenue is less than $11.5 million, there may be challenges for the year.
Why it matters: Keeping Free Cash Outflow below this level would show good cash management and build trust.
Supportive ifIf Free Cash Outflow is below $8 million for 2026, it would back up management's guidance.
Worry ifIf Free Cash Outflow is over $8 million, it raises worries about cash management.
Why it matters: Good adoption metrics would show this new product is successful and helps revenue.
Watch forManagement says more people are using Build-Tek. They expect higher revenue next quarter.
Also watch forIf there is no significant adoption or revenue from Build-Tek next quarter, it is a concern.