Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)
NYSE MKTFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$102.60+2.88%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.32 → 8.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TMP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations near $73.4M | Cash flow from operations doubled to $73.4M, supporting financial strength. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $73.4M | Cash from operations: $37.882M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $73.4M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 202637,882,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TMP is a regional Financials business with a performance-led, income component, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance, but management execution is mixed on expense discipline.
TMP carries a 26% premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable strength. The valuation evidence labels that premium unjustified, while its expectations-gap measure is positive; together, they suggest the market’s assumptions may be ahead of what the evidence supports.
Near-term results have been strong, with two recent earnings beats, a wider net interest margin, and year-over-year growth in loans and deposits. The dividend has also increased, while lower reported expenses partly reflect the insurance subsidiary sale rather than ongoing cost discipline. Near-term miss risk is rated quiet, but the company’s smaller size and a deep past miss remain relevant risks.
The unfavorable case includes a guidance cut on the next call or Federal Reserve rate cuts, which the evidence says could weigh on TMP and Financials more broadly. The favorable case depends partly on sector peers continuing to beat earnings and guide higher. Over the multi-year view, sustained loan and deposit growth, wider margins, and disciplined expenses are key execution tests.
Over the next one to three years, TMP’s thesis rests on continued operating strength, but the peer premium and recent drop in company momentum make execution and the rate backdrop important. The evidence supports an intact thesis, not a risk-free one. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps raising dividends, now $0.67 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.67 |
Dividend per share: $0.70 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.67 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20260.7 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain EPS near $7.53 in FY26 | A primary condition in Tompkins Financial Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.53 EPS. | Broken | EPS falls below $7.53 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.00 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.53 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20262 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Avoid revenue decline worse than -2.5% in next year | A supporting condition in Tompkins Financial Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= -2.5% YoY. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below -2.5% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.05 → $8.26 · observed estimates
$0.38B → $0.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.05 | $384,722,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.05 | $384,722,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.05 | $384,722,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.27 | $379,861,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.32 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.16 | $380,609,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.26 | $379,359,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.