Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)
NYSE MKTFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$100.02-2.51%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TMP — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-23
Other Events On October 22, 2026 , the Company's Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.74 per share, payable on November 13, 2026, to common shareholders of record on November 6, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.2.
Why it matters: The margin rose to 3.65% in Q3. Another rise would support earnings growth from the bank's core business.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 3.65%, with loan growth and lower funding costs supporting the rise.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 3.58%, the Q2 2026 level.
Why it matters: Loans and deposits grew year over year in Q3, and management names both as key goals. Continued growth can support the bank's core income.
Supportive ifQ4 period-end loans and deposits both rise from September 30, 2026 levels of $6.8 billion and $7.4 billion.
Worry ifQ4 period-end loans or deposits fall below their September 30, 2026 level.
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.74 dividend after several increases. Payment on the stated date would confirm the latest increase took effect.
Supportive ifTompkins pays $0.74 per share on November 13, 2026, as declared.
Worry ifTompkins delays, cuts, or cancels the $0.74 per-share payment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $234 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,303 loss on $10,000 · 13.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.