Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)
NYSE MKTFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$99.57+0.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TMP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
TMP — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-24
Other Events On July 23, 2026 , the Company's Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.70 per share, payable on August 14, 2026, to common shareholders of record on August 7, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.2.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects how much money the company makes. It shows how well they manage interest rates.
Watch forNet interest margin increases to above 3.58% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNet interest margin decreases below 3.57% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth would show the company is improving its operations. This aligns with management's goal to increase net income.
Supportive ifQ2 net income growth exceeds 10% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth is below 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong financial health. It also shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend declared for Q3 2026 is higher than $0.70 per share.
Worry ifDividend declared for Q3 2026 remains at or below $0.70 per share.
Why it matters: High cash flow shows the company is getting better at running its business. This helps with future investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations in Q2 remains above $70 million.
Worry ifCash from operations in Q2 falls below $60 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,303 loss on $10,000 · 13.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. This is important for future growth.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: A better net interest margin means more profit and higher revenue.
Supportive ifNet interest margin improves beyond 3.57% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin declines below 3.57% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for net interest income and overall profitability. Strong growth signals healthy demand.
Supportive ifLoan growth reported above 6% YoY for Q2.
Worry ifLoan growth reported below 4% YoY for Q2.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show strong financial health and care for shareholders. This boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe company will keep the $0.67 dividend in the next announcement.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend payout in the next declaration.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Tompkins can keep its growth trend. A strong report would confirm ongoing momentum.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS for Q3 2026 exceeds $2.04, showing continued earnings growth.
Worry ifDiluted EPS for Q3 2026 falls below $1.82, indicating a slowdown in earnings.
Why it matters: Loan growth is crucial for revenue. A strong growth rate supports ongoing profitability.
Supportive ifAnnualized loan growth rate exceeds 7.4% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAnnualized loan growth rate falls below 5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Noninterest income is important for total revenue. Trends can show business health after the insurance sale.
Watch forNoninterest income for Q3 2026 shows growth compared to Q2 2026.
Also watch forNoninterest income for Q3 2026 is lower than in Q2 2026.