Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$15.36 → $15.24 · observed estimates
Toll Brothers (TOL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$158.49+6.20%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TOL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Repurchase $175 million of common stock in 2026-Q2 | It repurchased $175 million of stock in 2026-Q2. | Intact | stock repurchase falls below $100 million in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$15.36 → $15.24 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a homebuilding business with a multi-year growth and execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact this week: community growth is on track, while overall financial performance is neutral and earnings quality remains fragile.
The valuation is cheap versus peers, and the recent valuation measure fell. The expectations gap is close to neutral, while the priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a large expectations mismatch.
Near term, management has reaffirmed full-year guidance after raising it in the prior quarter, and recent earnings reports were positive. Community count is growing in line with its stated annual goal, and capital returns are on track. Risks include fragile earnings quality and possible guidance cuts, though the stated near-term miss risk is low.
Over the next year, the thesis depends in part on management maintaining guidance and continuing to grow the community count. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Sector signals also matter: continued strength from DHI, PHM, and LEN could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, TOL’s long-term thesis has support from community growth and capital returns, but remains exposed to execution and housing-sector risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Toll Brothers's published investment case. The stated target is 459 communities by 2026-Q2. |
| Intact |
| community count growth falls below 5% year-over-year next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin near 26% to 27% | A primary condition in Toll Brothers's published investment case. The stated target is >=26% gross margin next two quarters. | Intact | gross margin falls below 24% next two quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Raise full year guidance across key home building metrics by ~10% | A primary condition in Toll Brothers's published investment case. The stated target is Raise guidance by at least 10% for July and October 2026. | Under Pressure | guidance cut or fails to raise by 5% next two quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.70B → $11.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | $15.36 | $11,701,419,030 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.36 | $11,701,419,030 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.25 | $11,619,169,030 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.24 | $11,541,674,851 | 9 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 14, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.