Toll Brothers (TOL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$158.49+6.20%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TOL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
TOL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-05-13
President and Chief Operating Officer — Mr. Robert Parahus: Mr. Robert Parahus is retiring as President and Chief Operating Officer, succeeded by Seth J. Ring.
Why it matters: Backlog value was $6.24 billion in Q3, down from $6.38 billion a year earlier. A further drop could signal weaker future home sales.
Worry ifAt the next report, backlog value is below $6.24 billion, the Q3 level.
Less concerning ifAt the next report, backlog value is at least $6.24 billion.
Why it matters: Q4 deliveries will test the full-year revenue plan. A miss could leave less room to meet the $10.5 billion sales goal.
Watch forQ4 deliveries are 3,450–3,550 homes. Full-year home sales revenue is about $10.5 billion.
Also watch forQ4 deliveries fall below 3,450 homes, or full-year home sales revenue falls short of $10.5 billion.
Why it matters: Management raised its repurchase plan while also paying dividends. The year-end total will test this capital return plan.
Supportive ifThe company reports at least $700 million in fiscal 2026 share repurchases.
Worry ifThe company reports less than $700 million in fiscal 2026 share repurchases.
Why it matters: More communities can support future home sales. Toll Brothers reported 471 at Q3 end and targets 480–490 for Q4.
Supportive ifFiscal year-end community count reaches at least 480, within the stated 480–490 range.
Worry ifThe year-end community count is below 480.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,513 loss on $10,000 · 25.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted margin fell from 27.5% a year ago to 25.6% in Q3. Q4 will show whether margins can meet the 26.0% guide.
Watch forQ4 adjusted home sales gross margin is 26.0% or higher, matching or beating guidance.
Also watch forQ4 adjusted home sales gross margin is below 26.0%.