Toll Brothers (TOL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$141.73-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TOL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TOL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-05-13
President and Chief Operating Officer — Mr. Robert Parahus: Mr. Robert Parahus is retiring as President and Chief Operating Officer, succeeded by Seth J. Ring.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising guidance shows strong demand. It also shows good management in a tough market.
Supportive ifQ4 home sales revenue guidance remains at or above $10.5 billion.
Worry ifQ4 home sales revenue guidance drops below $10.5 billion.
Why it matters: More community members show the company can grow. It can also meet market demand.
Supportive ifCommunity count reaches 480 or more by the end of FY 2026.
Worry ifCommunity count stays below 480 by the end of FY 2026.
Why it matters: More dividends show a promise to pay shareholders and keep finances strong.
Supportive ifDividend per share rises above $0.26 in Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share stays at or below $0.26 in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect the company's strategy and how it performs.
Watch forSeth Ring successfully takes over as President and COO.
Also watch forProblems may happen during the change. This can affect how the company operates.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $319 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,513 loss on $10,000 · 25.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: His plans could impact operational efficiency and growth. A smooth transition is key.
Watch forSeth Ring shares new plans that improve how the company runs.
Also watch forSeth Ring's initiatives face delays or lack clarity.
Why it matters: Net income has dropped a lot. This shows ongoing problems with growth.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 is reported below $260.59M.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 is reported above $260.59M.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows a promise to return money to shareholders. It shows confidence in finances.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases for FY 2026 hit $700 million.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases fall short of $700 million.
Why it matters: This range is important for showing the company's growth. Hitting this target means strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifHome deliveries reported at 2,600 units or more in Q3.
Worry ifHome deliveries were below 2,600 units in Q3.
Why it matters: More communities mean future growth and show demand for luxury homes. The company is growing its market.
Supportive ifCommunity count reported at 475 or more by the end of Q3.
Worry ifCommunity count reported below 475 by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: A higher contract value indicates strong demand and sales momentum. This is crucial for future revenue expectations.
Supportive ifNet signed contract value reported above $2.81 billion in Q3.
Worry ifNet signed contract value reported below $2.81 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: A new CEO may change company strategy and performance. This could affect investor confidence.
Watch forThe new CEO has made positive changes or announced good plans.
Also watch forOngoing problems or bad news after the transition are concerning.
Why it matters: This price range shows if Toll Brothers can maintain its luxury market position. Higher prices indicate strong demand.
Supportive ifAverage delivered price is $985,000 or more.
Worry ifAverage delivered price is less than $965,000.
Why it matters: High cancellation rates could signal weakening demand and affect future sales. It’s a key indicator of market health.
Worry ifCancellations this quarter are over 5% of signed contracts.
Less concerning ifCancellations this quarter are below 5% of signed contracts.
Why it matters: Lower SG&A shows better cost control, which helps make more money.
Supportive ifSG&A reported at or below 10.0% of home sales revenues.
Worry ifSG&A exceeds 10.0% of home sales revenues.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations is a key priority. Improvement signals better financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $134.45M in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $134.45M in Q3.
Why it matters: A steady or better gross margin shows good cost control. It also shows pricing power.
Supportive ifAdjusted home sales gross margin remains at or above 26.1%.
Worry ifAdjusted home sales gross margin falls below 26.1%.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show less demand or more cancellations.
Worry ifBacklog value reported above $6 billion.
Less concerning ifBacklog value falls below $6 billion.
Why it matters: Raising guidance signals confidence in sales and market conditions. It shows the company is adapting well to current challenges.
Supportive ifManagement raises full year guidance for home building.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers full year guidance for home building metrics.