Toll Brothers (TOL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$141.73-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TOL
How strong the business is — where it ranks within its sector on capital efficiency and cash generation, and how well management has been executing.
How this business ranks within consumer discretionary on a research-validated quality screen. As of 2026-09-04.
The screen ranks TOL against its sector on four durable signals: share dilution, return on capital, free-cash-flow yield, and FCF margin. Historically the highest-quality names tended toward better typical outcomes and fewer bad years over multi-year holds (strongest at three years, modest at one), and that pattern showed up even before the price moved. It characterizes business quality, not price direction.
Each leg is a sector-relative percentile (higher is better); 4 of 4 legs were available for this name. The composite is built from these four; the raw value follows each percentile for context.
A forward quality tilt, not a price prediction, and context for your own research rather than a recommendation. Not investment advice.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=6943).
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue expanding the number of selling communities to support growth in home deliveries and backlog.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Community count increased from 445 in 2026-Q1 to 471 in 2026-Q3, a growth consistent with the 8% to 10% annual target. Management has reiterated this growth target each quarter and the trajectory is delivering against it.
“We remain on track to grow community count by 8% to 10% in fiscal 2026 and beyond.”
“We increased community count by 9% year-over-year and control sufficient land for continued 8% to 10% growth in 2027 and beyond.”
“We owned or controlled approximately 75,000 lots, providing sufficient land to continue growing community count at an annual pace of 8% to 10% in fiscal 2026 and beyond.”
Maintain and raise full-year guidance for home sales revenues, gross margin, and deliveries based on year-to-date performance.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year guidance in 2026-Q2 and reaffirmed it in 2026-Q3, with home sales revenue guidance at approximately $10.5 billion and adjusted gross margin at 26.1%. The trajectory shows management maintaining or raising guidance consistent with reported performance.
Continue repurchasing shares and increasing dividends to return capital to shareholders while maintaining financial strength.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management returned $506 million to shareholders year-to-date through share repurchases and dividends by 2026-Q3, increasing projected repurchases to $700 million. Dividends per share rose from $0.25 in 2026-Q1 to $0.26 in 2026-Q3. The trajectory is delivering on capital return commitments.
Preserve liquidity, low leverage, and substantial operating cash flows to support growth and capital returns.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash and cash equivalents declined modestly from $1.20B in 2026-Q1 to $1.06B in 2026-Q3, while debt-to-capital ratio remained stable around 24.5%. Management consistently emphasized strong liquidity and low leverage, indicating delivery on financial strength.
“Balance sheet remains very strong, with ample liquidity, low leverage and substantial operating cash flows.”
Continue share repurchases with increased authorization to return capital while maintaining financial strength.
Over the trailing year it converted -0.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=3652).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity (low R² over the window).
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2538).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-09-04.
“We are reaffirming all of our full-year guidance metrics, including approximately $10.5 billion of home sales revenues and an adjusted gross margin of 26.1%.”
“Based on our year-to-date performance, we are raising our full year guidance across all key home building metrics.”
“We maintain our full year guidance for fiscal 2026.”
“Returned $231 million to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends in Q3; year-to-date total $506 million.”
“Repurchased approximately 1.2 million shares for $175.4 million; year-to-date total $226 million; raised quarterly dividend.”
“Repurchased approximately 0.3 million shares for $50.5 million; paid quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share.”
“Strong balance sheet, attractive margins and significant operating cash flows support growth and returns.”
“Balance sheet is solid with low net debt and ample liquidity, projecting significant operating cash flows.”