Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC (TOVX)
NYSE MKTHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.17-11.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TOVX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improvement in EPS losses | A supporting condition in THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.20 to better than -$0.10 by FY27. | Broken | EPS loss remains at or below -$0.20 by FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not a proven compounder: the company is loss-making and its prospects depend on advancing drug trials. The long-term thesis is intact in the snapshot, but confidence is low and key programs remain at the watch stage.
The valuation model is aligned with its comparison measure, with a modest premium versus peers; the evidence does not show a clear expectations gap. Pricing fragility is rated low, but that does not remove the risk tied to clinical and earnings uncertainty.
Over the next few quarters, results may remain uneven: there was an earnings miss in August after results were in line in May, and the estimated risk of another near-term miss is elevated. Across the next one to three years, fundamentals hinge more on clinical progress than current earnings, including trial enrollment and data for VCN-01.
A favorable case depends on advancing VCN-01 trials in pancreatic cancer, retinoblastoma, and head and neck cancer, with meaningful clinical evidence still ahead. The unfavorable case includes a guidance cut or weaker employment data that raises recession fears; stronger results from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop but would not establish TOVX's clinical success.
The one-to-three-year view remains intact but highly uncertain, with clinical execution as the central support and near-term earnings risk still elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Theriva Biologics has secured an exclusive worldwide license with Rasayana Therapeutics, which could drive future growth. |
| Intact |
| no material progress or revenue from Rasayana license by FY27 |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage operating losses | Management is focused on managing operating losses, which have decreased from $4.44 million to $2.13 million. | Broken | operating loss remains above $2 million next 4 quarters | Operating income: $-3.295M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss declines below $2 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026-3,295,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Results from the VIRAGE2 study will inform the VCN-01 dosing regimen for potential evaluation in a future pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial.” “Results from the VIRAGE2 study will inform the VCN-01 dosing regimen for potential evaluation in a future pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.24 → $-0.20 · observed estimates
Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.20 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.20 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.20 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.20 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.20 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.20 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.20 | $0 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.24 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.21 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.