THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC (TOVX)
NYSE MKTHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.250.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TOVX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TOVX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 11, 2026, Theriva Biologics, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release that included financial information for its quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Why it matters: FDA feedback will check if the design meets rules. This affects future trials.
Supportive ifFDA agrees with the proposed design for the Phase 3 trial of VCN-01 in metastatic PDAC.
Worry ifFDA has big concerns about the trial design. This delays progress.
Why it matters: Data from this trial will inform future dosing for VCN-01 in pancreatic cancer. Positive results could support the case for a Phase 3 trial.
Supportive ifThe first safety data from the VIRAGE2 trial shows good results.
Worry ifData from the VIRAGE2 trial shows no gains in safety or effectiveness.
Why it matters: FDA feedback will guide the next steps for VCN-01 in treating retinoblastoma, a key growth area.
Supportive ifManagement plans to discuss the proposed Phase 2/3 trial protocol with the FDA in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFDA feedback shows big worries about the trial design.
Why it matters: Completing enrollment is key to advancing the VCN-01 program for metastatic PDAC. It sets the stage for future pivotal trials.
Supportive ifVIRAGE2 trial enrollment completes in H2 2026 as planned.
Worry ifEnrollment does not complete by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: This agreement could drive future growth for Theriva. Progress here is crucial.
Supportive ifA press release says the license deal with Rasayana Therapeutics is done.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the license agreement process for over six months.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in the healthcare sector, impacting Theriva's growth.
Worry ifHealthcare revenue growth reported below its median level.
Less concerning ifHealthcare revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show financial health and ability to support ongoing trials.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents increase, extending runway beyond Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents drop a lot, raising worries about funding.
Why it matters: FDA feedback on the proposed trial could shape the future of VCN-01 for retinoblastoma. Positive discussions may lead to a new treatment option for children.
Supportive ifFDA agrees to the plan for the Phase 2/3 trial of VCN-01 in retinoblastoma.
Worry ifFDA has major worries about the trial plan.
Why it matters: Cash levels are critical as they affect the company's ability to fund ongoing trials. A significant drop could signal financial distress.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents remain stable or increase from $11.3 million.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents fall below $11.3 million.
Why it matters: Good results could help VCN-01 move forward. This would grow its market and impact.
Supportive ifMore positive clinical data is shared from the Phase 1 trial in head and neck cancer.
Worry ifBad or unclear results come from more checks of the Phase 1 trial.
Why it matters: Managing losses is important for investor trust. A drop shows better cost control.
Supportive ifQ2 losses were below $2 million.
Worry ifLosses are still above $2.13 million.
Why it matters: Results will show if more frequent dosing of VCN-01 improves outcomes in pancreatic cancer. This could support future pivotal trials.
Supportive ifThe VIRAGE2 trial shows better overall survival. It also shows better progression-free survival.
Worry ifResults show no better survival. They also show no better progression-free survival than earlier trials.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$257 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,014 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,917 loss on $10,000 · 79.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.