THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC (TOVX)
NYSE MKTHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.17-11.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TOVX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 117 industry peers
TOVX — litigation filed
Dated 2026-11-02
and in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. The press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K includes “safe harbor” language pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995…
Why it matters: The third cohort is paused until Theriva gets more funding. A funded restart would show the study can move again.
Supportive ifThe company announces grant funding, a partnership, or other funding. It confirms that enrollment in the third SYN-004 cohort has restarted.
Worry ifThe company reports no new funding and the third cohort remains paused in its November 11, 2026 update.
Why it matters: Cash was $11.3 million at June 30, with runway into Q1 2027. A shorter runway could put planned trials at risk.
Worry ifThe November 11 report shows cash below $8 million or says the runway ends before Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifThe November 11 report keeps the runway into Q1 2027 or later, with cash at or above $8 million.
Why it matters: The study tests whether more frequent VCN-01 doses are safe and workable. Good results could guide the dose plan for a future Phase 3 study.
Supportive ifBy September 30, 2027, the company reports safety and dose data. The data show that at least 3 doses, about 2 months apart, were feasible and well-tolerated.
Worry ifThe company reports that repeat dosing was not feasible or raised safety concerns. Or, data were delayed past September 30, 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$206 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $993 loss on $10,000 · 9.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,893 loss on $10,000 · 58.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.