Reading TOVX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TOVX free→Reading TOVX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TOVX free→NYSE MKTHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared with sector peers. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.67x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.05 → $-0.05 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$328.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,014.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,917.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TOVX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Theriva Biologics, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release that included financial information for its quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TOVX THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC | — | — | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Entered into a license agreement granting Rasayana an exclusive worldwide license to develop and commercialize products.
Focus on managing operating losses as the company continues to report negative operating income.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, Theriva Biologics, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release that included financial information for its fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
and in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or after the date hereo…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 18, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), Theriva Biologics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a license agreement (the “Agreement”) with Rasayana Therapeutics, Inc. (“Rasayana”), whereby the Company granted Rasayana an exclusive worldwide license with the right to grant sublicenses to Research, Develop, Manufacture and Commercialize (as such terms are defined in the Agreement) any Product (as such term is defined in the Agreement), which include…
and in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. The press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K includes “safe harbor” language pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995…