Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
LendingTree, Inc. (TREE)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.35+32.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.61 → 6.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TREE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income grows to at least $31 million in 2026-Q1 | Operating income rose from $20.9M in 2025-Q2 to $31.1M in 2026-Q1. | Improving | Operating income falls below $31 million in 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $21.798M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $31 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 30, 202621,798,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TREE is a growth and execution story, with Insurance as a key source of expansion and earnings quality assessed as robust. Its long-term thesis is still intact, but recent performance is below its industry cohort and confidence has moved to medium.
The valuation evidence describes TREE as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially supportive. Priced-in fragility is low, and the valuation model has high confidence, though this does not remove the risk from uneven results.
Near term, Insurance revenue and segment profit growth, along with higher adjusted EBITDA, show progress on management’s stated priorities. However, recent earnings misses and erratic surprises create meaningful risk around the next report, while new AI and marketplace efforts do not yet have direct financial proof.
The near-term thesis weakens if TREE cuts guidance on its next call. Rate cuts could also weigh on the Financials sector backdrop, while continued strong results and higher guidance from V, MA, and AXP could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, the case depends on continued Insurance-led growth and better operating results overcoming recent execution concerns. The long-term thesis remains watchful, with the next guidance update a key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit targets for 2026 remain stable near $152 million. |
| Broken |
| Adjusted EBITDA falls below $152 million in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 revenue at or above $1.3 billion | A primary condition in LendingTree, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.3 billion. | Intact | Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $1.3 billion | Revenue: $313.422M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 2026313,422,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.73 → $6.80 · observed estimates
$1.42B → $1.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.73 | $1,416,050,050 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.73 | $1,416,050,050 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.73 | $1,416,030,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.73 | $1,416,050,050 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.73 | $1,416,050,050 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.73 | $1,416,030,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.73 | $1,416,050,050 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.61 | $1,401,320,200 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.62 | $1,401,160,830 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.62 | $1,401,160,830 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.62 | $1,401,160,830 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.62 | $1,401,160,830 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.62 | $1,401,160,830 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.61 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.62 | $1,401,180,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.80 | $1,378,631,167 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.