LendingTree, Inc. (TREE)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.35+1.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TREE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -51.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
TREE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, LendingTree, Inc. (the “Registrant”) announced financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the related press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by refer…
Why it matters: Stabilization in SMB loans is key for revenue growth. It shows the market is recovering.
Watch forManagement reports an increase in SMB loan demand in Q3.
Also watch forDemand for SMB loans deteriorates further in Q3.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change company direction. They can also impact employee morale.
Worry ifNew leaders that improve company culture or strategy.
Less concerning ifMore departures may hurt employee morale.
Why it matters: Improved consumer sentiment can lead to higher demand for loan products. This is key for LendingTree's growth.
Supportive ifThe consumer sentiment index shows it is getting better from low levels.
Worry ifThe consumer sentiment index keeps falling or stays at record low levels.
Why it matters: Consumer segment revenue declined in Q2. Growth in Q3 would show recovery.
Supportive ifQ3 Consumer segment revenue increases year over year by more than 4%.
Worry ifQ3 Consumer segment revenue declines year over year or stays flat.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $648 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,423 loss on $10,000 · 64.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA growth shows better profits. A drop could raise worries about costs.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA was over $34 million in Q3.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA falls below $34 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Management saw SMB loans stabilize after a drop. This shows signs of recovery.
Supportive ifSMB loan segment revenue grows sequentially in Q3 compared to Q2.
Worry ifSMB loan segment revenue continues to decline or remains flat in Q3.
Why it matters: Insurance segment is a growth driver. Continued growth supports overall revenue strength.
Supportive ifQ3 Insurance segment revenue grows year over year by more than 40%.
Worry ifQ3 Insurance segment revenue growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% would signal a slowdown in LendingTree's growth compared to the sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported at or above 15%.
Why it matters: New AI features may help customers engage more and increase revenue.
Watch forNew AI features lead to clear increases in how customers engage.
Also watch forThere are no big gains in customer engagement from AI projects.