Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Targa Resources (TRGP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$271.82-4.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.33 → 12.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TRGP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase adjusted EBITDA to $5.7-$5.9 billion in 2026 | Targa Resources aims to grow adjusted EBITDA to $5.7-$5.9 billion in 2026. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $5.7 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Three Months Ended June 30, 2026 Compared to Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 Commodity sales were relatively flat due to lower natural gas prices ($784.8 million) and the unfavorable impact of hedges ($291.6 million), partially offset by higher NGL and condensate prices ($597.8 million) and higher NGL, natural gas and condensate volumes ($435.2 million).” “2026 Outlook Given the strength of Targa’s performance through the first two quarters of the year, Targa now estimates full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be towards the top end of our $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion range.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an energy infrastructure growth and income story, with recent earnings and dividend growth supporting the long-term thesis. The thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and recent financial performance and management execution are assessed as neutral overall.
TRGP is valued at a 31% premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable strength, and the model sees a meaningful expectations gap. The valuation measure fell recently, but the stock is still assessed as expensive; the evidence does not show that the premium is justified.
Near term, management has raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance and reported record quarterly adjusted EBITDA in the first half of 2026. It is also on track with its stated dividend priority, while growth capital spending guidance remains mixed; near-term miss risk is rated low, but the industry has a high miss rate and TRGP has had a deep miss in its recent history.
The multi-year view depends on continued volume growth and marketing margins supporting earnings, alongside delivery on infrastructure projects and capital discipline. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from ENB, WMB, and KMI could signal whether the sector tailwind persists or fades.
Over the next one to three years, TRGP’s thesis has support from improving guidance, dividend execution, and sector momentum, but an expensive valuation raises the cost of any operational or sector setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Recommend $5.00 annual dividend per share in 2026 | It also targets a $5.00 annual dividend per share in 2026, a 25% increase. | Intact | annual dividend falls below $5.00 in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Three Months Ended June 30, 2026 Compared to Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 Commodity sales were relatively flat due to lower natural gas prices ($784.8 million) and the unfavorable impact of hedges ($291.6 million), partially offset by higher NGL and condensate prices ($597.8 million) and higher NGL, natural gas and condensate volumes ($435.2 million).” “We intend to recommend an annual common dividend of $5.00 per share for 2026 beginning with the first quarter payment in May of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain net growth capital expenditures near $4.5 billion in 2026 | The company plans to maintain net growth capital spending near $4.5 billion. | Intact | net growth capex significantly exceeds $4.5 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We continue to estimate net growth capital expenditures to be approximately $4.5 billion, and our estimate for 2026 net maintenance capital expenditures remains unchanged at approximately $250 million.” “The company estimates net growth capital expenditures to be approximately $4.5 billion which includes capital spending for our announced infrastructure projects underway including six new Permian plants, three fractionators in Mont Belvieu, our Speedway NGL Pipeline, our GPMT LPG Export Expansion, our intra-basin residue gas projects in the Permian, and spending on long-lead items for two additional processing plants in the Permian.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.93 → $12.46 · observed estimates
$22.96B → $24.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.93 | $22,963,801,580 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.93 | $22,963,801,580 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.42 | $22,963,281,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.42 | $22,963,281,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.42 | $22,963,281,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.44 | $23,010,059,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.96 | $22,981,257,360 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.44 | $23,010,059,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.44 | $23,010,059,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.96 | $22,981,257,360 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.96 | $22,981,257,360 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.96 | $22,981,257,360 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.94 | $23,015,657,360 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.94 | $23,015,657,360 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.45 | $23,044,459,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.98 | $23,138,483,690 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.98 | $23,138,483,690 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.02 | $23,283,294,800 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.45 | $23,044,459,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.45 | $23,044,459,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.45 | $23,044,459,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.45 | $23,044,459,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.45 | $23,044,459,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.45 | $23,044,459,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.45 | $23,044,459,038 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.36 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.32 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.30 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.30 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.30 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.30 | $22,948,342,941 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.31 | $23,671,920,504 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.31 | $23,671,920,504 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.31 | $23,671,920,504 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.31 | $23,671,920,504 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.28 | $23,671,920,504 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.28 | $23,671,920,504 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.28 | $23,671,920,504 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.28 | $23,671,920,504 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.28 | $23,671,920,504 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.28 | $23,671,920,504 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.30 | $23,728,882,288 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.30 | $23,728,882,288 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.34 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.34 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.34 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.34 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.33 | $23,811,522,002 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.32 | $23,876,065,245 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.33 | $23,876,065,245 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.33 | $23,876,065,245 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.33 | $23,876,065,245 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.33 | $23,876,065,245 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.33 | $23,876,065,245 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.36 | $23,949,278,620 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.41 | $23,949,278,620 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.39 | $23,928,303,620 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.39 | $23,928,303,620 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.39 | $23,928,303,620 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.39 | $23,928,303,620 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.39 | $23,928,303,620 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.41 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.43 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.43 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.43 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.43 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.43 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.43 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.46 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.46 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.46 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.46 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.46 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.46 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.46 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.46 | $24,002,952,870 | 10 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
5 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.