Targa Resources (TRGP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$285.00-4.54%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRGP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 60.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 36.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
TRGP — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-25
CFO — William A. Byers: The CFO is retiring with a named internal successor (Benjamin J. Branstetter) appointed simultaneously, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 range to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion. Results near $5.9 billion would confirm its stronger outlook.
Supportive ifThe full-year 2026 update keeps adjusted EBITDA near the top of the $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion range.
Worry ifManagement lowers the 2026 range below $5.7 billion. Or, full-year results come in below $5.7 billion.
Why it matters: Targa plans about $4.5 billion in growth spending. A sharp increase could raise pressure on cash as projects advance.
Worry ifTarga raises 2026 net growth capital spending above $4.5 billion. Or, it reports spending above that level.
Less concerning ifTarga keeps its 2026 net growth capital estimate near $4.5 billion and reports no major project cost increase.
Why it matters: Targa raised its quarterly dividend 25% from 2025. Keeping the payment at $1.25 would confirm delivery on that plan.
Supportive ifThe next dividend declaration keeps the quarterly payment at $1.25 per share.
Worry ifTarga declares a quarterly dividend below $1.25 per share. Or, it suspends the dividend.
Why it matters: New plants add capacity for Permian gas. Delays could push back growth from these projects.
Supportive ifTarga says its Copperhead, Yeti, Yeti II, Roadrunner III, and Copperhead II plants remain on track. No start dates are pushed back.
Worry ifTarga reports a delay to a planned plant start date or takes a project off its on-track schedule.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $280 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,057 loss on $10,000 · 10.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Negative Waha prices led some customers to cut output in Q2. More cuts could slow Targa's volume growth.
Worry ifTarga says negative Waha prices cause producer cuts. These cuts lower Permian inlet volumes from the Q2 level of more than 450 million cubic feet per day.
Less concerning ifPermian inlet volumes rise from Q2. Targa reports no major cuts tied to negative Waha prices.