Targa Resources (TRGP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
$290.05-1.19%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TRGP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 45.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 26.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TRGP — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-25
CFO — William A. Byers: The CFO is retiring with a named internal successor (Benjamin J. Branstetter) appointed simultaneously, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: A strong Q3 adjusted EBITDA shows growth. It also supports management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was more than $1.6 billion.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was less than $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: High inlet volumes show strong performance and demand in the Permian Basin.
Supportive ifPermian inlet volumes were over 450 million cubic feet per day.
Worry ifPermian inlet volumes were under 400 million cubic feet per day.
Why it matters: Changes may affect future growth and operations in the Permian region.
Watch forGuidance is about $4.5 billion for net growth capex.
Also watch forGuidance is revised down from the $4.5 billion estimate.
Why it matters: The $5.00 annual dividend shows Targa wants to give cash back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board of Directors approves the $5.00 annual dividend.
Worry ifThe Board does not approve the recommended $5.00 annual dividend.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $293 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,601 loss on $10,000 · 16.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: These plants are key to expanding Targa's processing capacity in the Permian. Their completion will support future revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe Roadrunner III and Copperhead II plants are now complete.
Worry ifDelays in the completion of either plant beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Keeping this capex level is key for Targa's growth and projects.
Watch forQ2 2026 net growth capital expenditures were at or near $4.5 billion.
Also watch forIn Q2 2026, net growth capital spending was much less than $4.5 billion.
Why it matters: This dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement announces a quarterly dividend of $1.25. This totals $5.00 for the year.
Worry ifDividend is below $5.00 for the year.
Why it matters: Updates on spending show Targa wants to grow and build infrastructure.
Watch forManagement confirms the $4.5 billion growth capex estimate will stay the same.
Also watch forManagement cuts the growth capex estimate to less than $4.5 billion.
Why it matters: Completing Train 12 would enhance capacity and support revenue growth in 2027.
Supportive ifTrain 12 fractionator will be done and working by December 2026.
Worry ifTrain 12 fractionator will not be done by December 2026.
Why it matters: Updates may show management's confidence in cash flow and how they use capital.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the current $1.3 billion limit.
Worry ifNo new announcements or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: More inlet volumes would boost Targa's growth and adjusted EBITDA.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 Permian inlet volumes are much higher than Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 Permian inlet volumes reported lower than Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Progress on these projects is key for growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifManagement says at least two major Permian projects are done.
Worry ifThere are more delays on key infrastructure projects.
Why it matters: The $5.00 annual dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe earnings report will announce the $5.00 annual dividend.
Worry ifNo mention of the dividend or a reduction in the proposed dividend.
Why it matters: Completion of these plants supports Targa's growth strategy in a key area. It can drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the East Driver processing plant and other Permian projects are on track.
Worry ifDelays in the completion of the East Driver processing plant or other Permian projects.