Trimble Inc. (TRMB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.47-1.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS guidance for FY26: FY26 EPS guidance mid -0.1 vs target 3.56.
Trimble grows revenue about 7.5% yearly. Recurring revenue rose 12% to $2.43 billion. The company buys back shares actively, spending $316.9 million recently. Profit per share is guided near $3.56 for 2026.
Management is volatile and behind on some goals. Guidance was cut despite recent beats. Audit chair changes may hurt future guidance trust. The stock fell 22.7% from its high.
The price is about 23% below our fair value near $68. Analysts expect about 7% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this cautious outlook.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $3.47 next year
Breaks if: Audit chair shift causes material weakness or guidance loss
ARR growth falls below 12% YoY next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growing annual recurring revenue (ARR). The current thesis state is stable, with management executing key strategies to enhance revenue and return capital to shareholders.
The market currently prices TRMB as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for revenue growth and ongoing share repurchases.
Management is on track with its priorities, including growing ARR and executing a share repurchase program. Recent financial performance has been neutral, with a low probability of missing guidance, although there is a history of volatility in results.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute its growth strategy. Additionally, external factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and performance of sector peers could significantly impact TRMB's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Trimble raised its revenue and EPS guidance for 2026, reinforcing growth objectives. There are no new threats identified at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7.5% in FY26
Breaks if: Share repurchase falls below $316.9 million in Q1 2026
Overall, TRMB's fundamentals suggest a stable outlook in the next 1 to 3 years, but external factors and management execution will be critical. Not investment advice.