Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
Trimble Inc. (TRMB)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.64-1.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.14 → 4.14 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TRMB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS guidance for FY26 | A primary condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS ~3.56 USD per share. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $3.47 next year | Diluted EPS: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS ~3.56 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TRMB is a recurring-revenue growth business pursuing its Connect & Scale strategy, with execution showing through in steady growth in annualized recurring revenue (ARR), or the yearly value of recurring contracts. The thesis is intact, but recent financial performance is neutral and risk is elevated, so this is not a low-risk growth story.
The evidence describes TRMB as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 72% premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap of 0.23; these measures point in different directions, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not indicate that expectations are unusually vulnerable to disruption.
Near term, ARR and revenue have grown, and management raised its 2026 revenue guidance; these trends support the multi-year growth thesis if execution continues. However, the company missed its most recent quarter and has a history of a deep miss, while management is rated volatile. The stated near-term miss risk is low, but guidance execution remains important.
The favorable case depends on continued ARR growth and meeting the raised 2026 revenue guidance. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while Fed rate cuts or stabilization among technology-sector peers could provide a supportive backdrop. Recent financial momentum improved, but the evidence does not establish how durable that improvement will be.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TRMB’s thesis rests on recurring-revenue growth and delivery against guidance, balanced by execution risk and a recent earnings miss. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material weakness in audit or guidance credibility. |
| Under Pressure |
| Audit chair shift causes material weakness or guidance loss |
ARR growth cut to ~10% vs raised guidance Trimble cut ARR growth outlook to ~10% while maintaining EPS guidance, challenging prior raised guidance credibility. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) growth | A primary condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY ARR growth. | Intact | ARR growth falls below 12% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue growth | A primary condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 7.5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 7.28% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20267.279183 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase program execution | A supporting condition in Trimble Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase >=$316.9 million in shares. | Intact | Share repurchase falls below $316.9 million in Q1 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 Trimble Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results and Raises Full Year Guidance • Record annualized recurring revenue, reflecting ongoing execution of the Connect & Scale strategy • Record second quarter gross margins • Second quarter results exceeded expectations • Raising full year 2026 revenue and earnings guidance • Board of Directors approves new share repurchase authorization of $1.0 billion WESTMINSTER, Colo., Aug 12, 2026 - Trimble Inc. (Nasdaq: TRMB) today announced financial results for the second quarter of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 3, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.08 → $4.14 · observed estimates
$4.21B → $4.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.08 | $4,210,557,594 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.08 | $4,210,557,594 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.08 | $4,210,256,644 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.12 | $4,236,123,166 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.12 | $4,236,085,167 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.14 | $4,240,220,182 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.14 | $4,240,011,212 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.14 | $4,240,011,212 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.14 | $4,240,011,212 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.14 | $4,240,011,212 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.14 | $4,240,011,212 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.14 | $4,239,978,116 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.14 | $4,239,979,940 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.14 | $4,239,979,940 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.14 | $4,239,979,940 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.14 | $4,239,979,940 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.14 | $4,239,979,940 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.14 | $4,239,979,940 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.14 | $4,239,979,940 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.14 | $4,239,979,940 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.