TSLA
Tesla, Inc.NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, TSLA has a composite score of 0.4 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 71.1, with elevated market risk at 62.4 and an expensive valuation at 14.0. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor, and the analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.41
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.45 (-1.1% / 30d). 7 raised, 14 cut, 24 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 11 maintained. 49% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.8% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Invest in clean energy and transport infrastructurecapital allocationmixed44% progressprovisional
1/28: “In 2026, we will further invest in the infrastructure needed to support clean energy and transport and autonomous robots.”
- 2.Volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semiproductmixed65% progress
4/22: “We expect volume production of both Cybercab and the Tesla Semi this year.”
- 3.Focus on long-term growth and value creationgrowthwatchprovisional
10/22: “While we face near-term uncertainty from shifting trade, tariff and fiscal policy, we are focused on long-term growth and value creation.”
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 43%; 252d 48%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −30%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.13 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 21/100, drawdown 40/100, beta 13/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Invest in clean energy and transport infrastructure
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Tesla plans to further invest in infrastructure to support clean energy, transport, and autonomous robots.
Mixed44%CEO/CFO:“In 2026, we will further invest in the infrastructure needed to support clean energy and transport and autonomous robots.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-28First seen 2026-05-04provisional - #2
Volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi
ProductNew since 2026-05-04Tesla expects to achieve volume production of both Cybercab and Tesla Semi in 2026.
Mixed65%CEO/CFO:“We expect volume production of both Cybercab and the Tesla Semi this year.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-22First seen 2026-05-04 - #3
Focus on long-term growth and value creation
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Tesla is focused on long-term growth and value creation despite near-term uncertainties.
WatchNo scoreCEO/CFO:“While we face near-term uncertainty from shifting trade, tariff and fiscal policy, we are focused on long-term growth and value creation.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-22First seen 2026-05-04provisional
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
65 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
MCD McDonald's | +19 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 50 - 2026-04-021mo agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing .
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 31 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, Tesla, Inc. released its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 by posting its Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Update on its website. The full text of the update is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference . This information is intended to be furnished under
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 8 - 2026-01-024mo agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing .
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 4
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.