Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$385.19-3.34%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.29 → 2.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 24 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TSLA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ramp AI compute and battery production | A supporting condition in Tesla, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is sustain ramp in AI compute and battery production in 2026. | Improving | fails to sustain ramp in AI compute and battery production in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution thesis, with potential value tied to future autonomy and AI software rather than only current results. The thesis is in a watch state: company momentum improved, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
TSLA is valued at a 17.65% premium to peers, and the evidence links that premium to optionality, meaning investors are assigning value to possible future businesses. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what current fundamentals support, though confidence in that measure is low. Priced-in fragility is rated low, but that does not remove the risk created by an expensive valuation.
Near-term results are mixed: revenue was nearly flat from 2026-Q2 to Q3, energy storage revenue declined, and the company recorded earnings misses on October 2 and October 21. Operational progress includes Cybercab rides in Austin, growth in unsupervised Robotaxi miles, and production starts for Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and Optimus, but the evidence does not establish their financial contribution. A run of misses remains a risk despite a low stated miss probability.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on whether Tesla can convert autonomy, AI software, and new-product milestones into measurable financial progress. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the 1- to 3-year view, Tesla has visible operational milestones and improving company momentum, but financial results have not yet confirmed the scale of the future-business opportunity. The thesis remains uncertain because execution must justify an expensive valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Tesla leads in electric vehicles and clean energy. |
| Intact |
| significant reduction in investment in clean energy and transport infrastructure in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth | A primary condition in Tesla, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -0.17% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 22, 2026-0.174408 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi | It aims for volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi in 2026. | Improving | fails to achieve volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We continue to increase production of our 4680 cells to support the ramps of both Cybercab and Tesla Semi along with higher Model Y volumes.” “We expect volume production of both Cybercab and the Tesla Semi this year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.35 → $2.02 · observed estimates
$120.23B → $121.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.35 | $120,230,327,005 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.35 | $120,230,327,005 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.23 | $119,840,470,660 | 32 / 46 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.33 | $119,495,705,937 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.22 | $120,456,741,310 | 32 / 46 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.33 | $119,495,705,937 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.22 | $120,523,395,250 | 32 / 46 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.29 | $120,637,728,472 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.29 | $120,637,728,472 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.22 | $120,372,616,630 | 33 / 47 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.28 | $120,509,525,552 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.28 | $120,509,525,552 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.28 | $120,509,525,552 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.22 | $120,628,616,630 | 33 / 47 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.22 | $120,628,616,630 | 33 / 47 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.24 | $120,089,515,227 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 26 / 36 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.24 | $120,164,618,648 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.26 | $120,291,461,061 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.26 | $120,291,461,061 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.26 | $120,291,460,941 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.26 | $120,291,460,941 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.26 | $120,291,460,941 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.27 | $120,434,151,208 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.27 | $120,434,151,208 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.27 | $120,434,151,208 | 25 / 35 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.27 | $120,434,151,208 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.27 | $120,434,151,208 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.27 | $120,434,151,208 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.27 | $120,434,151,208 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.27 | $120,438,964,086 | 25 / 33 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.27 | $120,438,964,086 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.27 | $120,438,964,086 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.30 | $120,438,964,086 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.30 | $120,438,964,086 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.30 | $120,438,964,086 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.30 | $120,422,110,427 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.30 | $120,422,110,427 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.30 | $120,422,110,427 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.31 | $120,617,817,745 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.31 | $120,617,817,745 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.28 | $120,412,075,096 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.28 | $120,412,075,096 | 25 / 33 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.28 | $120,412,075,096 | 25 / 32 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.28 | $120,431,185,963 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.28 | $120,431,185,963 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.27 | $120,456,356,695 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.27 | $120,456,356,695 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.25 | $120,571,936,047 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.29 | $120,608,138,486 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.29 | $120,608,138,486 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.29 | $120,608,550,180 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.29 | $120,608,550,180 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.29 | $120,664,326,668 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.32 | $121,236,009,367 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.32 | $121,272,142,609 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.32 | $121,272,142,609 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.31 | $121,176,706,894 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.31 | $121,176,706,894 | 23 / 32 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.31 | $121,175,754,513 | 23 / 32 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.27 | $121,100,144,598 | 23 / 32 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.27 | $121,100,144,598 | 23 / 32 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.27 | $121,100,146,923 | 23 / 32 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.27 | $121,100,146,923 | 23 / 32 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.27 | $121,100,146,923 | 23 / 32 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.27 | $121,100,137,621 | 23 / 32 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.28 | $121,067,071,932 | 23 / 32 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.05 | $122,110,938,918 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.05 | $122,156,309,811 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.05 | $122,156,309,811 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.05 | $122,156,309,811 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.05 | $122,156,309,811 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.04 | $122,314,430,532 | 25 / 33 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.04 | $122,314,430,532 | 25 / 33 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.05 | $122,315,067,488 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.02 | $121,813,169,871 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.02 | $121,813,169,871 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.02 | $121,813,169,871 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.02 | $121,813,169,871 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.02 | $121,813,169,871 | 24 / 33 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 22 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 20 recorded
3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.