Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$354.08-5.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSLA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
TSLA — earnings miss
Dated 2025-10-22
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Successful ramp-up of these products is crucial for Tesla's growth and market position.
Supportive ifProduction of Cybercab and Tesla Semi begins as planned in 2026.
Worry ifCybercab or Tesla Semi production delays go past 2026.
Why it matters: This earnings report will reflect the impact of production ramp-up and any changes in vehicle demand. It is crucial for future guidance.
Watch forQ1 2024 earnings were better than expected. This shows production is increasing and demand is strong.
Also watch forQ1 2024 earnings were lower than expected. This suggests there are still problems with production or sales.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may mean a slowdown in consumer spending.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Tesla continues to beat expectations.
Supportive ifEarnings report shows revenue growth above 15% year over year.
Worry ifEarnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Cash flow trends will indicate Tesla's ability to fund growth and operations.
Watch forFree cash flow exceeds $1.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Also watch forFree cash flow falls below $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This report will show Tesla's profits and cash flow.
Watch forQ4 2023 net income reported above $2 billion.
Also watch forQ4 2023 net income reported below $1 billion.
Why it matters: New clean energy investments show Tesla cares about its goals.
Supportive ifThey announced over $500 million for new clean energy projects.
Worry ifNo new clean energy investments announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The earnings results will show if Tesla can stay profitable. This is important during production increases and investments.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income reported above $1.1B.
Less concerning ifNet income below $1.1B shows possible problems with making money.
Why it matters: Going over this number shows strong demand. It also shows good operations, which helps investors.
Supportive ifQ3 vehicle deliveries are more than 500,000 units.
Worry ifQ3 vehicle deliveries are less than 480,000 units.
Why it matters: Energy storage growth is important for Tesla. More deployment shows strong demand and better operations.
Supportive ifEnergy storage deployments exceed 4,500 MWh in the next quarter.
Worry ifEnergy storage deployments fall below 3,500 MWh in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Ramping up Cybercab production is key for Tesla's growth. Delays could hurt investor feelings.
Supportive ifCybercab production reaches at least 10,000 units in Q3.
Worry ifCybercab production stays below 5,000 units in Q3.
Why it matters: More subscriptions show strong customer use of Tesla's AI features. This could boost revenue.
Supportive ifActive FSD subscriptions reach 2 million by the end of Q3.
Worry ifActive FSD subscriptions remain below 1.5 million by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Starting production shows Tesla's focus on energy storage growth. This can strengthen its market position.
Supportive ifMegapack 3 production begins in Q3 2026.
Worry ifMegapack 3 production is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $470 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,910 loss on $10,000 · 39.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.