Tyson Foods (TSN)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.42-0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Tyson aims to grow sales 2% to 4% in fiscal 2026. Free cash flow should be $1.2B to $1.8B. Chicken and Prepared Foods profits are rising. New CEO may improve company balance and strategy.
Sales growth may slow due to government help for smaller meatpackers. New COO could disrupt execution. Beef market problems may hurt profits and sales.
The price is about 13% below our fair value near $68. Analysts expect 2% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism.
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $1.0B or falls below $700M in FY26
Control capital spending within $700 million to $1.0 billion for fiscal 2026 to support profit improvement and maintenance projects.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis is intact, although recent changes have shifted the outlook to mixed, indicating some caution is warranted.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, with TSN trading at a premium compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that the market anticipates stable performance without significant surprises.
Management has set clear priorities for sales growth and free cash flow, with recent results showing stable revenue growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing targets, especially given the industry's recent performance trends.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet its sales and cash flow targets, as well as external factors like inflation and the performance of sector peers. Any guidance cuts could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Tyson Foods cut its fiscal 2026 profit and revenue forecasts. This was due to severe cattle shortages and volatile prices affecting its beef margins. The latest earnings miss also indicates challenges in achieving sales growth targets.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $397 million in first half of 2026, consistent with guidance of $700 million to $1.0 billion for full fiscal 2026. Management continues to control capex spending to balance maintenance and profit improvement projects. The trajectory is aligned with stated capital expenditure targets.
“We expect capital expenditures of $0.7 billion to $0.9 billion in fiscal 2026.”
“We expect capital expenditures of $0.7 billion to $1.0 billion in fiscal 2026.”
“We expect capital expenditures of $0.7 billion to $1.0 billion in fiscal 2026.”
“We expect capital expenditures between $700 million to $1.0 billion for fiscal 2026.”
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $1.2B in FY26
Maintain disciplined capital allocation to generate free cash flow in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion for fiscal 2026.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free cash flow was $432 million in first half of 2026, with guidance consistently targeting $1.3B to $1.7B for full fiscal 2026. Cash from operations and capital expenditures support this range. The trajectory shows management maintaining disciplined capital allocation to meet free cash flow targets.
“We expect free cash flow to be between $1.3 billion and $1.7 billion for fiscal 2026.”
“We expect free cash flow to be between $1.2 billion and $1.8 billion for fiscal 2026.”
“We expect free cash flow to be between $1.1 billion and $1.7 billion for fiscal 2026.”
“We expect free cash flow to be between $0.8 billion and $1.3 billion for fiscal 2026.”
Breaks if: Leadership issues cause missed targets or strategic setbacks
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26
Drive top-line growth with sales expected to increase 2% to 4% in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue was $54.4B in fiscal 2025 and quarterly revenues in 2026 show stable to slightly growing sales, with Q3 2026 revenue at $13.87B. Guidance consistently targets 2% to 4% sales growth for fiscal 2026. The trajectory is delivering consistent top-line growth aligned with management's stated sales increase.
“We expect sales to be up 2.5% to 3.5% in fiscal 2026 as compared to fiscal 2025.”
“We expect sales to be up 2% to 4% in fiscal 2026 as compared to fiscal 2025.”
“We expect sales to be up 2% to 4% in fiscal 2026 as compared to fiscal 2025.”
“We expect sales to be up 2% to 4% in fiscal 2026 as compared to fiscal 2025.”
Breaks if: segment profits fall below $1.5B for Chicken or $1.25B for Prepared Foods in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TSN's performance will depend on management execution and market conditions. Not investment advice.