Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
Tyson Foods (TSN)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$60.11+0.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.14 → 4.90 EPS · FY ending Sep 27, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TSN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage capital spending between $700M and $1.0B in fiscal 2026 | A supporting condition in Tyson Foods's published investment case. The stated target is $700M to $1.0B CAPEX. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $1.0B or falls below $700M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $159M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $700M to $1.0B CAPEX. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026159,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TSN is a large food business with a moderately cyclical profile, meaning results can be affected by changes in the wider economy. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium as company momentum weakened.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, at a 1.12 premium, while the expectations gap is slightly negative and the overall pricing tag is justified. This suggests the market’s expectations broadly match the valuation, but leaves limited room for execution to fall short.
Near term, sales are stable to slightly growing, and management remains on track with its fiscal 2026 sales growth goal. Free cash flow and capital spending goals are still being watched, while recent company momentum weakened and the evidence notes a run of earnings misses. Over the multi-year view, robust earnings quality and a supportive sector backdrop help, but management execution remains volatile.
The near-term risk is a guidance cut, which could lead analysts to lower estimates, or further weakening in jobs data that raises recession concerns for cyclical companies. The favorable case depends partly on sector peers continuing to report strong earnings and raise guidance. Meeting the fiscal 2026 cash flow and spending goals is also important.
For the next one to three years, TSN’s long-term thesis rests on sustained sales growth, disciplined spending, and delivery of cash flow goals, against a valuation that is expensive versus peers. The thesis remains intact, but weaker momentum and execution risks warrant attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital expenditures include investments in profit improvement projects as well as projects for maintenance and repair.”
Achieve free cash flow between $1.2B and $1.8B in fiscal 2026 | Free cash flow should be $1.2B to $1.8B. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $1.2B in FY26 | Free cash flow: $481M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $1.2B to $1.8B free cash flow. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026481,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “It has enabled us to return $445 million of cash to our shareholders year to date, through a combination of dividends and share repurchases."” Operating cash flow was $942.000 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Effective leadership under new CEO and COO | New CEO may improve company balance and strategy. | Under Pressure | Leadership issues cause missed targets or strategic setbacks | Qualitative: Q3 earnings miss + 2026 outlook revision Q3 earnings miss, 2026 outlook revision, and beef price pressures confirm leadership execution failure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase sales by 2% to 4% in fiscal 2026 | Tyson aims to grow sales 2% to 4% in fiscal 2026. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -0.12% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 2% to 4% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026-0.115241 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our disciplined balance sheet management, execution and diversified, multi-protein portfolio position us to capitalize on significant growth opportunities ahead," said Donnie King, President & CEO of Tyson Foods.” Revenue was $13.868 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Grow profits in Chicken and Prepared Foods segments | Chicken and Prepared Foods profits are rising. | Intact | segment profits fall below $1.5B for Chicken or $1.25B for Prepared Foods in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “"We remain focused on continuous improvement, leveraging our scale and operating capabilities to better serve our customers and consumers.” Operating income was $362.000 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.14 → $4.90 · observed estimates
$56.27B → $56.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | $5.14 | $56,274,492,516 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.14 | $56,274,492,516 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.14 | $56,274,492,516 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.14 | $56,274,492,516 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.14 | $56,274,492,516 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.14 | $56,274,492,516 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.14 | $56,274,492,516 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.14 | $56,274,492,516 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.14 | $56,274,492,516 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.06 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.06 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.06 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.06 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.06 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.06 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.06 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.04 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.04 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.04 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.04 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.04 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.04 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.04 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.04 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.04 | $56,244,480,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.93 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.90 | $56,100,980,016 | 4 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 16, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.