Tyson Foods (TSN)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$60.11+0.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers
TSN — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-24
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 24, 2026, Tyson Foods, Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced public offering and sale of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.100% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.600% Senior Notes due 2037 (the “2037 Notes,” together with the 2031 Notes, the “Notes”). The sale of the Notes was made pursuant to the Company’s Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Regis…
Why it matters: Tyson cut its Beef outlook as cattle shortages and high prices squeezed margins. A larger loss would add pressure to total earnings.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted Beef operating loss is worse than $775 million.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 adjusted Beef operating loss is $775 million or less.
Why it matters: Tyson aims for $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion in free cash flow. It had $432 million in the first half, so the full-year result tests that goal.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 free cash flow is below $1.3 billion.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 free cash flow is at least $1.3 billion.
Why it matters: Tyson said its new Beef plant network may cut costs in fiscal 2027. Lower costs would show the changes are working.
Supportive ifIn fiscal 2027, Tyson reports lower Beef costs to run its three facilities.
Worry ifTyson reports that Beef costs have not fallen as it enters fiscal 2027, or delays the cost savings.
Why it matters: Tyson's updated outlook calls for 1.5% to 2.0% revenue growth. A result below that range would show weaker sales than its latest outlook.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 revenue growth is below 1.5%.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 revenue growth is at least 1.5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $210 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,659 loss on $10,000 · 26.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.