Tyson Foods (TSN)
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$51.42-0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesAgricultural Farm ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TSN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TSN — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-24
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 24, 2026, Tyson Foods, Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced public offering and sale of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.100% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.600% Senior Notes due 2037 (the “2037 Notes,” together with the 2031 Notes, the “Notes”). The sale of the Notes was made pursuant to the Company’s Registration Statement on Form S-3 (Regis…
Why it matters: Revenue growth is critical for Tyson's performance. It will indicate if the company is on track to meet its sales goals.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth reported at 2% to 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth reported below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Controlling capital spending is key. It helps keep cash flow steady and supports growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending was between $0.7 billion and $1.0 billion for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending was above $1.0 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger loss would show worse conditions in the Beef segment. This would hurt profits.
Worry ifBeef segment operating loss exceeds $(775) million in Q4.
Less concerning ifBeef segment operating loss is less than $(775) million.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good capital management. It helps support future investments.
Watch forFree cash flow for fiscal 2026 is reported between $1.3 billion and $1.7 billion.
Also watch forFree cash flow falls outside the $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion range.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $218 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,521 loss on $10,000 · 25.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The outcome will show how well Tyson handles its debt and spending. Success could make its finances stronger.
Supportive ifThe company completes the tender offers for at least $1.2 billion in notes by the deadline.
Worry ifThe company fails to complete the tender offers or accepts less than the maximum amount.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plan may change priorities and impact company performance.
Watch forThe new CEO spoke positively about growth plans and market position.
Also watch forThere was negative feedback about the CEO's strategy or actions in the first months.
Why it matters: The transition to a new CEO could impact Tyson's strategy and operations. Smooth leadership changes are crucial for stability.
Watch forThe transition went well. No major problems were reported after October 4, 2026.
Also watch forThere were big problems or mistakes after the CEO transition.
Why it matters: Exceeding this range could signal aggressive spending that may affect cash flow.
Worry ifSpending was above $1.0 billion for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending was between $0.7 billion and $1.0 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Sales growth below this threshold would signal weaker demand and could impact future earnings.
Worry ifSales growth reported below 2% for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifSales growth reported above 2% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, profits may worsen. This could raise worries about efficiency.
Worry ifOperating income was less than $572 million.
Less concerning ifOperating income was more than $572 million.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to Tyson's performance. Meeting the target shows strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 sales growth reported at 2% or higher compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth reported below 2% compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: Operating income below $1.9B means the Chicken segment is not doing well.
Worry ifThe chicken segment made less than $1.9 billion in operating income for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifChicken segment operating income was $1.9 billion or more for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding operations and investments. It indicates financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported between $1.1B and $1.7B.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $1.1B.
Why it matters: Profits in these areas are key for Tyson's growth. Better profits show strong performance.
Supportive ifOperating income in Chicken and Prepared Foods goes up from the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income in Chicken and Prepared Foods goes down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in Chicken shows good management and strong market demand.
Supportive ifChicken segment operating income grows year over year.
Worry ifChicken segment operating income goes down each year.