Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Trane Technologies (TT)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$410.48-1.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
17.66 → 17.72 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain strong cash flow and effective capital deployment | The company manages capital well, generating strong cash flow. | Intact | Annual cash from operations falls significantly below $2.5 billion | Cash from operations: $1.313B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Sustain cash from operations near or above $2.5 billion annually. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20261,313,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TT is a growth-oriented industrial business whose long-term case rests on revenue growth, earnings delivery, and capital deployment. The thesis is currently intact, though confidence is medium and recent momentum has weakened.
Valuation is stretched, with TT trading at a notable premium to peers and an expectations gap that suggests meaningful execution is already assumed. The evidence points to low fragility overall, but model confidence is low, so the valuation read is uncertain.
Through the multi-year view, strong revenue growth, higher guidance, and progress on shareholder distributions support the business case. Near term, the latest quarter missed and company momentum fell sharply, despite reaffirmed full-year earnings guidance; the risk of another miss is described as low.
A key swing factor is whether TT maintains its recently raised guidance, since a reversal could damage management credibility. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results from industrial bellwethers could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains supported by recent revenue and earnings progress, but the latest miss makes follow-through important while valuation is stretched. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS reaches between $14.75 and $14.95 in 2026 |
| A primary condition in Trane Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $14.75 and $14.95. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $13.0 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $4.74 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $14.75 and $14.95. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20264.74 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 9.5% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Trane Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.5% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below ~7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 17.71% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9.5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202617.713539 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.08 → $17.72 · observed estimates
$25.43B → $26.61B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $17.08 | $25,427,685,090 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-25 | $17.09 | $25,433,437,260 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-26 | $17.09 | $25,433,437,260 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-27 | $17.09 | $25,418,405,232 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $17.09 | $25,418,405,232 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $17.09 | $25,433,437,260 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-07-30 | $17.09 | $25,418,405,232 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $17.18 | $25,540,129,820 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-01 | $17.27 | $25,658,258,231 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $17.40 | $25,786,649,980 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $17.47 | $25,831,303,690 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $17.47 | $25,831,303,690 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $17.38 | $25,765,971,415 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $17.50 | $25,854,495,683 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $17.50 | $25,854,495,683 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $17.51 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $17.53 | $25,865,920,467 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-12 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $17.58 | $25,908,562,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $17.56 | $25,904,262,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $17.56 | $25,904,262,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $17.56 | $25,904,262,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $17.56 | $25,904,262,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $17.57 | $25,914,512,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $17.57 | $25,914,512,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $17.57 | $25,914,512,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $17.57 | $25,914,512,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $17.57 | $25,914,512,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $17.57 | $25,914,512,069 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $17.61 | $25,983,630,542 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $17.61 | $25,983,630,542 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $17.61 | $25,983,630,542 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $17.62 | $25,986,341,917 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $17.62 | $25,986,341,917 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $17.66 | $26,057,528,102 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $17.66 | $26,057,528,102 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $17.66 | $26,057,523,754 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $17.66 | $26,057,523,754 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $17.66 | $26,057,523,754 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $17.66 | $26,057,523,754 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $17.65 | $26,053,476,135 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $17.65 | $26,053,496,359 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $17.65 | $26,053,496,359 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $17.65 | $26,053,496,359 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $17.65 | $26,057,837,433 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $17.65 | $26,057,837,433 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $17.65 | $26,057,837,433 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $17.66 | $26,071,078,342 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $17.70 | $26,136,840,024 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $17.72 | $26,138,021,842 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $17.72 | $26,138,021,842 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-20 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-21 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-24 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-10-25 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-26 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-27 | $17.72 | $26,141,859,835 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-10-28 | $17.74 | $26,157,991,653 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $17.74 | $26,157,991,653 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $17.75 | $26,403,617,218 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $17.72 | $26,591,493,722 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-11-01 | $17.72 | $26,591,493,722 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $17.72 | $26,591,493,722 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $17.72 | $26,612,549,354 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $17.72 | $26,612,549,354 | 16 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.