Trane Technologies (TT)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$447.90+0.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 92.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
TT — President transition
Dated 2026-07-22
Senior Vice President and Chief Global Integrated Supply Chain Officer — Mingxiao (Gary) Guo: Mr. Guo will depart the Company effective August 1, 2026.
Why it matters: This EPS target shows how much money the company makes. It is important for investor trust. It shows good cost control.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 EPS reaches $14.75 or higher.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS falls below $14.50.
Why it matters: Changes in capital plans can affect financial health. They can also influence growth.
Watch forA new capital plan was announced. It will greatly lower debt.
Also watch forA capital plan was announced that increases debt levels.
Why it matters: Changes may affect dividends and share buybacks. This can impact investor confidence.
Worry ifThe company plans to return 100% of extra cash to shareholders.
Less concerning ifManagement is changing its current plans for spending money.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can affect how well growth plans work and how teams align.
Watch forThere is positive feedback on how well things are working after Donny Simmons becomes COO.
Also watch forThere may be negative feedback or problems after the COO transition.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,590 loss on $10,000 · 15.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS is key for investor confidence. A miss could raise concerns about profitability.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 below $3.70.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 meets or exceeds $3.70.
Why it matters: Simmons' leadership could enhance execution of growth strategies. Poor alignment may slow progress.
Supportive ifMetrics improve under Simmons. This shows better alignment and execution.
Worry ifMetrics get worse or do not improve after the appointment.
Why it matters: This growth rate indicates the health of Trane's core business and demand for its products.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 organic revenue growth meets or exceeds 7% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 2026 organic revenue growth falls below 5%.
Why it matters: A slowdown in backlog growth could indicate weakening demand in key segments.
Worry ifBacklog growth was below 30% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifBacklog growth meets or exceeds 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow could show operational problems and affect plans.
Worry ifCash flow from continuing operations was below $1.7 billion YTD.
Less concerning ifCash flow from continuing operations is at or above $1.7 billion YTD.
Why it matters: A drop in organic revenue growth could signal weakening demand in key segments.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was below 9%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic revenue growth meets or exceeds 9%.
Why it matters: An increase in backlog shows strong future demand. This can help revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog is above $12.1 billion.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or remains flat.
Why it matters: A decline in EPS would challenge the company's growth narrative and guidance.
Worry ifQ3 GAAP EPS reported below $4.20.
Less concerning ifQ3 GAAP EPS meets or exceeds $4.20.
Why it matters: A decline would indicate weakening demand in a key growth area for Trane.
Worry ifAmericas Commercial HVAC bookings grew less than 50%.
Less concerning ifAmericas Commercial HVAC bookings growth is at or above 50%.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance shows strong earnings and investor trust.
Supportive ifGAAP continuing EPS guidance raised above $15.10.
Worry ifGAAP continuing EPS guidance remains at or below $15.00.