Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-09-04
$214.69+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Take-Two grew net bookings 19% to $6.72 billion in fiscal 2026. GTA VI launch is expected to boost future sales. Management improved net loss from $4.48 billion to $298 million. These show progress toward profitability and growth.
The company reported recent earnings misses and cut guidance. Profitability remains negative with a $298 million loss. The GTA VI launch faces uncertainty and may not drive expected growth.
The stock trades about 20% above our fair value near $213, reflecting analysts' 20% revenue growth expectations. Our fair value is 26% below the Street median, indicating some optimism priced in that we view as cautious.
Breaks if: GTA VI launch delayed beyond Q4 2026 or sales fall significantly below expectations
Successfully launch Grand Theft Auto VI on November 19, 2026, as a key growth driver.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company is navigating a challenging environment while preparing for significant product launches.
The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation, reflecting high expectations despite the company's recent losses. There is a fragility due to the expensive valuation combined with weak performance and sector turbulence.
Management is focused on increasing net bookings and launching Grand Theft Auto VI, which could enhance profitability. However, recent financial performance has been neutral, and there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on the successful launch of Grand Theft Auto VI and the performance of sector peers like NTES, EA, and RBLX. If these companies perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for TTWO, while any negative guidance could lead to further challenges.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss indicates that financial performance is below expectations. Additionally, a sharp drop in the stock price suggests the market is repricing the thesis. However, strong preorders for Grand Theft Auto VI support the outlook for increased net bookings.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently highlights the November 19, 2026 launch date for Grand Theft Auto VI as a key event. The product launch is expected to drive record Net Bookings in fiscal 2027. The trajectory is delivering as the launch date approaches with continued emphasis.
“Excitement around the November 19th launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.”
“We believe Fiscal 2027 will establish new record levels driven by the November 19th launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.”
“Highly anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto VI on November 19th.”
“Rockstar Games will now release Grand Theft Auto VI on November 19, 2026.”
“Grand Theft Auto VI expected in Fall of calendar 2025 (later updated).”
Breaks if: Net Bookings fall below $6.0 billion in fiscal 2026
Continue growing Net Bookings to reach $8.0 to $8.2 billion in fiscal 2027, driven by new releases and live services.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Net Bookings guidance increased from $6.05-$6.15 billion in 2026-Q1 to $8.0-$8.2 billion for fiscal 2027. Actual Net Bookings grew from $1.42B in 2026-Q1 to $1.39B in 2027-Q1 (slight decline quarter-over-quarter). Management is reiterating the $8.0-$8.2B target and projecting record levels, showing delivering trajectory on growth.
“We are reiterating our Fiscal 2027 Net Bookings outlook of $8.0 to $8.2 billion.”
“Initial outlook for fiscal 2027 includes Net Bookings of $8.0 to $8.2 billion.”
“We continue to project record levels of Net Bookings in Fiscal 2027.”
“We expect to achieve record levels of Net Bookings in Fiscal 2027.”
“We are raising our Fiscal Year 2026 Net Bookings outlook to $6.05 to $6.15 billion.”
“Fiscal year 2026 Net Bookings expected to range from $6.65 to $6.7 billion.”
Breaks if: Net loss worsens beyond -$400 million in fiscal 2026
Improve operating income and net income through disciplined cost management and revenue growth.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income improved from -$104.2M in 2026-Q4 to -$35.5M in 2027-Q1, and net loss narrowed from -$59.5M to -$34.1M over the same period. Management consistently emphasizes a path to enhanced profitability and strong cash flow generation, indicating delivering trajectory.
“We expect to sustain this new level of scale and generate strong cash flows, setting us on a path to deliver continued growth and long-term shareholder returns.”
“We expect to sustain this higher level of scale, generate strong cash flows, and deliver long-term shareholder value.”
“We believe Fiscal 2027 will establish a new financial baseline and set us on a path to enhanced profitability.”
“We expect to achieve record levels of Net Bookings in Fiscal 2027, which will establish a new baseline and set us on a path of enhanced profitability.”
“We have exceptional confidence in our multi-year outlook and our ability to deliver meaningful shareholder returns.”
“We remain confident that we will achieve sequential increases and record levels of Net Bookings in Fiscal 2026 and 2027.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, TTWO's performance will depend on its ability to execute on key priorities amid a challenging sector backdrop. Not investment advice.