Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-09-04
$214.69+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesElectronic Gaming & MultimediaSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TTWO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 40.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
TTWO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 7, 2026 , Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results of the Company for its first fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, that is furnished pursuant to this
Why it matters: Better profits are important for long-term value and financial health.
Supportive ifGAAP net income becomes positive or loss gets much smaller than before.
Worry ifGAAP net loss remains above $60 million.
Why it matters: Updates on the launch will indicate if the game can drive significant sales.
Watch forManagement confirms a specific launch date for Grand Theft Auto VI.
Also watch forManagement delays the launch date. They do not provide updates.
Why it matters: The launch is a key event that could drive significant revenue growth and Net Bookings.
Supportive ifSuccessful launch with strong sales reported in the first week.
Worry ifLaunch fails to meet initial sales expectations.
Why it matters: Management's focus on profits is important. It helps to cover past losses.
Supportive ifManagement reports a GAAP net income for the next quarter.
Worry ifManagement reports a GAAP net loss greater than $200 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $302 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,768 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: How the sector does can affect Take-Two's sales. It can also change its market position.
Worry ifTake-Two shows revenue growth as sector conditions get better.
Less concerning ifTake-Two shows revenue decline as sector conditions get worse.
Why it matters: This guidance shows growth expectations. It also shows if the company can keep growing.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Net Bookings guidance of $8.0 to $8.2 billion during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts guidance to less than $8.0 billion.
Why it matters: Higher profits mean better cost control. This shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating loss narrows to below -$35 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating loss widens beyond -$35 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can meet its growth targets after the recent miss.
Worry ifEarnings results show a big improvement from last quarter's performance.
Less concerning ifEarnings results missed expectations again. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: This revenue range helps us see how well the company is doing financially.
Supportive ifGAAP net revenue reported within the $1.450 to $1.500 billion range.
Worry ifGAAP net revenue falls below $1.450 billion.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into the company's performance and outlook after GTA VI launch.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive net income and strong guidance for the rest of the year.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals a net loss and reduced guidance for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target shows strong demand ahead of Grand Theft Auto VI's launch.
Supportive ifQ2 Net Bookings reported at $1.67 billion or higher.
Worry ifQ2 Net Bookings reported below $1.62 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping costs low is important. It helps make more money as sales increase.
Supportive ifOperating costs are below $1 billion.
Worry ifOperating costs are above $1.02 billion.