Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Textron (TXT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$86.65-1.25%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.25 → 7.20 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for TXT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 EPS at least $6.4 per share | Profit per share is expected near $6.5. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $6.0 per share in 2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.56 per share FY2027-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.4 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20261.56 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
TXT is a mixed industrial and aerospace business with a recovery-oriented long-term thesis, not a clear-cut durable compounder. The thesis is in watch status: recent earnings were positive, but company momentum weakened and performance remains below its industry cohort.
TXT is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels current pricing as justified, with low fragility, so cheapness alone does not establish that the market is overlooking the execution risks.
Near term, recent earnings beats and higher year-over-year revenue in Aviation and Systems support the business, while Bell revenue declined and earnings surprises have been trending down. Manufacturing cash flow improved and its full-year outlook was raised, but the Industrial separation remains in process and delivery across priorities is mixed.
The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would signal weaker execution, while reaffirmed guidance would preserve the current operating case. Over the multi-year view, progress on the Industrial separation and sustained cash-flow improvement matter, alongside sector signals from SPCX, GE, and RTX, whose results could strengthen or weaken the Industrials backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TXT’s thesis combines encouraging cash-flow and aerospace evidence with fragile earnings quality, uneven segment results, and a sector headwind. The key test is whether execution improves enough to sustain the operating gains without a guidance reset. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Textron's published investment case. The stated target is Industrial segment separated by end 2026. |
| Intact |
| Separation delayed beyond 2026 or fails to enhance value |
Separation process active vs end-2026 target Textron announced Industrial separation in April 2026 and confirmed the sale process is active in July 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Intent to Separate its Industrial Segment In a separate press release issued today, Textron announced its intent to separate its Industrial segment from the Company’s core aerospace and defense businesses to enhance the strategic and operational focus of each platform and drive long-term value for stakeholders.” “Textron intends to explore multiple paths to effect the planned separation of its Industrial segment, including but not limited to a sale of the Industrial businesses or a tax-free separation into a standalone, publicly traded company.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions between $700M and $800M | Cash flow from manufacturing should reach $700 million to $800 million. | Improving | Manufacturing cash flow falls below $700 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Textron also raised its expectation for manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions, a non-GAAP measure, to be in the range of $800 million to $900 million, up from $700 million to $800 million.” “Our updated outlook reflects the U.S. Army's receipt of Congressional approval for the ATR request related to the MV-75 Cheyenne program and the associated contract modifications obligating such funding.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
2026 revenue reaches at least $15.5 billion | A primary condition in Textron's published investment case. The stated target is >= $15.5 billion. | Under Pressure | 2026 revenue falls below $14.8 billion | Revenue: $3.751B FY2027-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $15.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20263,751,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.31 → $7.20 · observed estimates
$16.15B → $16.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.31 | $16,153,738,489 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.31 | $16,153,738,489 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.31 | $16,153,738,489 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.31 | $16,153,738,491 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.31 | $16,152,604,505 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.25 | $16,137,720,237 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.25 | $16,137,720,237 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.24 | $16,156,999,008 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.24 | $16,156,999,008 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.24 | $16,156,999,008 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.24 | $16,156,999,008 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.24 | $16,156,999,008 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.24 | $16,156,999,008 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.24 | $16,156,999,008 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.24 | $16,162,278,793 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.25 | $16,164,688,520 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.25 | $16,164,688,520 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.25 | $16,164,688,520 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.25 | $16,164,688,520 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.25 | $16,164,688,520 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.25 | $16,164,688,520 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.25 | $16,164,688,520 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.25 | $16,164,688,520 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.25 | $16,164,688,520 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.25 | $16,164,692,340 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.25 | $16,164,692,340 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.25 | $16,164,692,340 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.25 | $16,164,692,340 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.25 | $16,164,692,340 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.25 | $16,164,692,340 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.25 | $16,164,692,340 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.25 | $16,164,692,340 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.25 | $16,164,685,673 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.25 | $16,165,002,140 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.25 | $16,165,002,140 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.25 | $16,165,002,140 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.25 | $16,165,002,140 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.25 | $16,165,002,140 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.25 | $16,165,008,807 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.25 | $16,165,008,807 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.21 | $16,173,623,256 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.24 | $16,168,289,922 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.24 | $16,168,289,922 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.24 | $16,183,489,922 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.17 | $16,173,906,589 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.18 | $16,206,025,036 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.18 | $16,206,025,036 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.18 | $16,206,025,036 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.20 | $16,375,202,837 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.20 | $16,375,202,837 | 10 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.