Textron (TXT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.07-0.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · TXT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
TXT — litigation filed
Dated 2026-04-30
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, Textron announced its intent to separate its Industrial segment, composed of Kautex and Textron Specialized Vehicles, from the Company’s core aerospace and defense businesses to enhance its strategic and operational focus and drive long-term value for stakeholders. Textron intends to explore multiple paths to effect the planned separation of its Industrial segment, including but not limited to a sale of the Industrial businesses or a tax-free separation into a…
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth is crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings per share reported at or above $5.39.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings per share reported below $5.00.
Why it matters: A growing backlog signals strong future demand for Textron's aircraft. It supports revenue growth and market confidence.
Supportive ifTextron Aviation's backlog grows to over $8.0 billion.
Worry ifBacklog falls or stays below $8.0 billion.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong cash flow. This shows a commitment to returning capital.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $200 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $200 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth supports management's target of $15.5 billion for 2026. It shows strong demand across segments.
Supportive ifQ3 revenues are over $3.9 billion. This is more than a 5% increase from last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenues are below $3.7 billion. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: This separation is a key priority for Textron. It aims to enhance focus and value for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Industrial segment will separate soon. A clear announcement will explain the new setup.
Worry ifNo progress or delays in the separation process are reported.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows that Textron is growing and doing well.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at or above $15.5 billion.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $15 billion.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show confidence in the company's finances. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifTextron announces share buybacks over $200 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or a big drop in buybacks in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows confidence in revenue growth and stability. It shows management can follow their plan.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance remains in the range of $6.40 to $6.60.
Worry ifGuidance is now below $6.40. This is due to operational problems.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog can show future revenue and operational strength.
Watch forBell and Textron Systems backlog increases by more than $1 billion.
Also watch forBacklog decreases or remains flat for both segments.
Why it matters: The separation will clarify Textron's focus on aerospace and defense. This could enhance long-term value for investors.
Supportive ifTextron shares a clear plan for separating its Industrial segment.
Worry ifTextron is delaying or canceling the planned split of the Industrial segment.
Why it matters: The separation is a key strategy to enhance focus on aerospace and defense. It could unlock shareholder value.
Supportive ifLook for a deal or listing for the Industrial segment.
Worry ifNo progress updates or delays in the separation process beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for funding growth and shareholder returns.
Supportive ifManufacturing cash flow before pension payments hits at least $700 million.
Worry ifManufacturing cash flow remains below $700 million for the full year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is more efficient. It also shows stronger financial health.
Supportive ifManufacturing cash flow for Q2 2026 exceeds $300 million.
Worry ifManufacturing cash flow for Q2 2026 is below $200 million.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $270 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,152 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.