Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
UDR, Inc. (UDR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$37.22+3.59%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.58 → 0.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for UDR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or slightly increase dividend per share | It keeps raising dividends, now about $0.435 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.43 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.43 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share at least $0.43 in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.435 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
UDR is a lower-risk, income-oriented real estate business with a multi-year view tied to apartment revenue and operating income growth. Its thesis is intact, though execution is mixed: recent financial performance is strong, while same-store growth has slowed from 2025.
The valuation evidence points to UDR being cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of 0.36, but confidence in that assessment is low. The supplied evidence does not explain what specific market expectations are reflected in the valuation, and no fragility signals were flagged.
Near term, earnings beats in July and October provide support, but company momentum fell 25 points and year-to-date 2026 same-store revenue and operating income growth remain below full-year 2025 rates. Management raised 2026 guidance in July, while a reported dividend increase and share repurchases show continued capital allocation; execution on property growth is less clear.
A next-quarter guidance increase after the July reduction would signal a stronger operating recovery, while Federal Reserve rate cuts could support the rate-sensitive real estate sector. The thesis would face more pressure if sector peers report weaker results or guidance, or if UDR’s same-store growth remains limited.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis is intact but depends on renewed property growth and steadier execution. Recent earnings strength and capital returns are constructive, while falling momentum and modest year-to-date growth remain key checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| UDR grows earnings with EPS expected near $0.96 in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.91 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $0.91 and $1.01. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Repurchase up to 25 million shares | The company is buying back up to 25 million shares, boosting shareholder returns. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or significantly reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Since recommencing share repurchases in September 2025, the Company has repurchased approximately 16.7 million shares of its common stock at a weighted average share price of $36.06 for total consideration of approximately $603.2 million.” “Following this share repurchase activity, the Company has approximately 20.3 million shares remaining for repurchase under its program.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.53 → $0.58 · observed estimates
$1.76B → $1.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.53 | $1,757,154,218 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.56 | $1,750,011,370 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.56 | $1,750,011,370 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.56 | $1,750,011,370 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.53 | $1,754,478,142 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.53 | $1,757,672,260 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.56 | $1,750,545,800 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.53 | $1,757,672,260 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.53 | $1,757,672,260 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.56 | $1,756,559,340 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.56 | $1,756,559,340 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.56 | $1,756,089,800 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.56 | $1,756,089,800 | 1 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.56 | $1,756,017,370 | 1 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.53 | $1,758,544,467 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.59 | $1,753,312,070 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.58 | $1,753,243,010 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.58 | $1,753,243,010 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.58 | $1,753,243,010 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.58 | $1,753,243,010 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.58 | $1,753,243,010 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.58 | $1,753,243,010 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.58 | $1,752,927,892 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.58 | $1,752,927,892 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.58 | $1,752,927,892 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.58 | $1,752,843,602 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.58 | $1,752,843,602 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.58 | $1,752,843,602 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.58 | $1,750,794,889 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.58 | $1,750,593,495 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.58 | $1,750,593,495 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.58 | $1,750,593,495 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.58 | $1,750,593,495 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.58 | $1,750,593,496 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.58 | $1,750,593,496 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.58 | $1,749,405,996 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.58 | $1,748,786,404 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.58 | $1,748,786,404 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.58 | $1,748,786,404 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.58 | $1,748,786,404 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.58 | $1,748,786,404 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.58 | $1,748,786,404 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.58 | $1,748,786,404 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.58 | $1,748,786,404 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.58 | $1,748,786,404 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.58 | $1,748,962,875 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.58 | $1,748,962,875 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.58 | $1,748,962,875 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.58 | $1,748,962,875 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.58 | $1,748,962,875 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.58 | $1,748,962,875 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.58 | $1,749,002,051 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.58 | $1,749,134,346 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.58 | $1,749,134,346 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.58 | $1,749,134,346 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.58 | $1,744,835,457 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.58 | $1,735,401,633 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.58 | $1,726,342,810 | 5 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.