UDR
UDR, Inc.NYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, UDR has a signal label of "mild_favorable" with a composite score of 10.1. This change from "mixed" indicates a more positive outlook, driven by factors such as macroeconomic conditions and sector trends. The scores reflect medium confidence (74.5) and low risk (22.2), with strengths in valuation (70.8) and quality (46.7). The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.12
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.14 → $0.11 (-20.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.7% above current price.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Share repurchase programcapital allocationmixed44% progress
5/4: “UDR announced that its Board authorized the repurchase of up to 25 million shares, effective immediately.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. UDR announced a share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to 25 million shares. This is a new capital allocation initiative, and its impact on financials will be observed in future quarters.
- 2.Maintain dividend per sharecapital allocationwatchprovisional
10/30: “Dividend per share remained at $0.43 in 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q2.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividend per share remained at $0.43 in both 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q2, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy. The consistency in dividend payments aligns with management's stated priority of maintaining shareholder returns.
- 3.EPS guidance for 2026growthbehind14% progress
4/29: “Updated Full-Year 2026 Outlook: EPS guidance range of $0.91 to $1.01.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. UDR provided EPS guidance for 2026 with a range of $0.91 to $1.01. This guidance sets expectations for earnings growth, but its realization will depend on future financial performance.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 22%; 252d 20%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLRE) — 0.99 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 67/100, drawdown 61/100, beta 99/100, earnings vol —.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of May 8, 2026, the signal label for UDR changed from "mixed" to "mild_favorable." This change indicates a shift in sentiment. The forward view includes several unfavorable scenarios, such as a composite delta estimate of -8.03 if rates state reverses from -0.37 to +0.37, and a -8.0 estimate if next-quarter guidance is cut. There are also favorable scenarios, including a +5.0 estimate if the real estate sector trend rises into "improving."
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 33% of the last 3 guided quarters · 83.6% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Share repurchase program
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04UDR announced a new share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to 25 million shares.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q2. UDR announced a share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to 25 million shares. This is a new capital allocation initiative, and its impact on financials will be observed in future quarters.
44%CEO/CFO:“UDR announced that its Board authorized the repurchase of up to 25 million shares, effective immediately.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Board authorized the repurchase of up to 25 million shares.”
- #2
Maintain dividend per share
Capital allocationUDR has consistently maintained its dividend per share at $0.43 over recent quarters.
WatchStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividend per share remained at $0.43 in both 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q2, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy. The consistency in dividend payments aligns with management's stated priority of maintaining shareholder returns.
Dividend per share remained at $0.43 in 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q2No scoreCEO/CFO:“Dividend per share remained at $0.43 in 2025-Q3 and 2025-Q2.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-10-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2025-10-30provisionalShow history (2)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Dividend per share remained at $0.43.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Dividend per share remained at $0.43.”
- #3
EPS guidance for 2026
GrowthUDR provided EPS guidance for 2026, with a range of $0.91 to $1.01.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q2. UDR provided EPS guidance for 2026 with a range of $0.91 to $1.01. This guidance sets expectations for earnings growth, but its realization will depend on future financial performance.
14%CEO/CFO:“Updated Full-Year 2026 Outlook: EPS guidance range of $0.91 to $1.01.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-04-29Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“EPS guidance range of $0.91 to $1.01.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
UDR UDR, Inc. | +10 | inexpensive | low |
WELL Welltower | +7.9 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | +10 | full | low |
EQIX Equinix | +22 | fair | moderate |
AMT American Tower | +18 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If real_estate sector trend rises from +0.00 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)+4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-8.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29)-8.0 pts
- If real_estate sector trend falls from +0.00 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2910d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, UDR, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. This press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report and refers to supplemental financial information that is available on the Company’s website and furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Report. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 19…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 58 - 2026-05-045d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 4, 2026, UDR, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the Company to repurchase up to 25 million shares of its common stock, effective immediately. The 25 million shares that the Company is authorized to repurchase under the stock repurchase program announced on May 4, 2026 is in addition to the remaining 4.6 million shares of common stock that the Company is authorized to repurchase under its existing stock repurchase program approved…
capital allocationpositivescore 46
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.